The Twenty-Five Percenters

A lot of people are making a lot out of Hillary Clinton's mammoth win over Barak Obama in West Virginia, where she trounced him by something like 67 percent to 26 percent-a forty-one percent margin of victory. John Edwards, who is no longer in the race (and who earlier today endorsed Obama) got seven percent. According to many observers, this is a sure sign that Obama has a serious problem with white, rural, blue-collar voters.

Their reasoning is based on exit polls which show that roughly twenty-five percent of Clinton voters voted due to racial reasons.

I do not dispute this assessment, but at the same time, it is easy to blow something like this out of all proportion.

There is another twenty-five percent faction that is rarely mentioned-the twenty-five percent who are regularly voting against John McCain in the Republican primaries, despite the fact that McCain has his party's nomination all sewed up. That was the percentage of people that voted against him in West Virginia, and also in North Carolina, while twenty percent voted against him in Indiana.

Bear in mind, these are not Republican voters who are just saying "what the fuck is the use, he already has won the damn thing". No these are people that are actually still going to the polls to express their disapproval, despite the fact that McCain is already the Republican Party's presumptive nominee.

When you look at the two together, one fact emerges, and that is, Obama's problem, while certainly significant, may not be as profoundly dire as McCain's. Why? Well, bear in mind, just because a white, rural voter might prefer Clinton does not in every case mean they absolutely despise Obama.

So, what is the percentage of Hillary Clinton voters who dislike Obama due to race, or due to the perception of elitism, the Reverend Wright, etc.? We can safely assume that not all voters who voted for racist reasons will admit to this, but I think it is safe to say they are nevertheless in the minority. The majority probably consider Obama acceptable, he is just not their fist choice.

So, you might say, well, it's probably an even trade. Twenty-five percent (at least) of Republican voters hate McCain, but twenty-five percent of Democratic voters also hate Obama. But no, wait a minute, that is twenty-five percent of HILLARY CLINTON Democratic voters who hate Obama.

Assume for the moment we can legitimately divide Obama and Clinnon voters fifty-fifty. That twenty-five percent suddenly becomes twelve-and-a half percent of Democratic voters who either outright hate Barak Obama, or at least consider some aspect of him or his candidacy objectionable enough they would not vote for him under any circumstances. That, however, is roughly half the percentage of Republican voters who feel the same way about McCain, if we can once again assume, based on the last two elections, that the parties are split about fifty-fifty.

Also, do remember, this is just the Republican anti-McCain faction that bothers to go to the polls to vote at all. It is reasonable to assume there is a great many others who just didn't bother to go to the polls.

Anyway you look at it, McCain is in trouble, especially when you consider a few other facts.

1. Lately, McCain has been trailing Obama in the polls regarding the preference of independent voters.

2. Blacks will almost certainly vote in record numbers in this election year, in greater numbers than ever before, and they will vote for Obama by a wide margin. In fact, they will probably vote for Obama by an even greater percentage than they usually vote for the Democratic ticket.

This is not an accusation of racial prejudice either, this is just a simple fact that has already born out. Blacks are not voting for Barak Obama by a margin of ten to one over Hillary Clinton, the wife of the "first black president", because they are impressed with the nuances in the differences between his and Hillary's approach to health care. They are voting for him because they see him as one of them, as an inspiration, a manifestation of their own collective hopes and dreams. Voting for somebody because of their race might be a form of positive prejudice, but it is not a form of bigotry equatable to voting against a candidate for racial reasons.

When push comes to shove, increased support among blacks will probably balance out the defections from white rural Democratic voters, of whom I concede there will probably be some, perhaps a significant amount in some states-mainly those states that Republicans tend to win anyway.

Of course, even these states McCain can not afford to take entirely for granted in all cases, since the recent announcement by former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr that he will be seeking the presidency on the Libertarian Party ticket. If Bob Barr manages to pull five percent of the national vote, then you will know where roughly ten percent of disaffected Republicans have gone. Where will the other twenty percent of disaffected Republicans go? Well, another ten percent will probably stay home and not vote at all, as they have been doing in the primaries since McCain became the presumptive nominee.

The last ten pecent might well vote for Obama.

Add all this up with those independent voters currently preferring Obama over McCain, and you begin to get a clear picture that McCain might well be headed for a route, if all of this holds up.

In the meantime, Obama has some time to appeal to the white voters who might currently have misgivings about him. A great lot of their concerns probably have little to do with race and more to do with such things as the Reverend Wright, Bill Ayers, and the "bitter" comments. It is up to Obama to address such concerns.

The "bitter" comment I put down to typical political pandering on the part of Obama-in this case, pandering to the San Francisco liberal limousine elites who Obama realizes is essential insofar as monetary donations go. I didn't like it, and still don't, but by the same token, I have heard him, prior to this debacle, express his belief in the Second Amendment and the right of American citizens to own guns, so I take him at his word. Besides, I am fucking bitter over a lot of shit. If you doubt that, read over some of the archives on this blog.

On other matters, such as the Global Warming hysteria and the immigration controversy regarding illegal aliens and amnesty, he is at least no worse than McCain, who has recently made overtures to the most radical of immigrants rights groups, LaRaza, a group that claims the US "stole" the American Southwest from Mexico.

In fact, if any group at all could cost Obama the nomination, it is the Latinos, a great many of whom in fact, when it comes to blacks, to at least some extent make the Ku Klux Klan look like the poster children of racial tolerance. They could conceivably cost Obama the election by throwing states where their numbers are significant. This is, in fact, why John McCain recently declared that California is in play for this election. Due to this factor, it might well be.

So, there are a lot of factors at play here, and this election might really hinge on regional factors, and third party influences. The Latino vote could well be the joker in the deck, and they could conceivably throw the election to McCain, but I think they will do so only if the race is close to begin with. I don't think it will be that close. When a candidate pisses off one third of his own party over his beliefs-beliefs that contradict party orthodoxy in more than a few instances-that pretty much has to trounce misgivings based on skin color, or an unfortunate choice of words, or even association with a crazy preacher.

When Obama reaches out to heal divisions within his party, you get the feeling he is at least halfway sincere. When McCain reaches out to heal divisions in his party, you look for the hand-buzzer.