Sunday, December 30, 2007

Geopolitical Jeopardy

Category-World Affairs

The Answer Is-Negotiations over this area have led to Russia supporting Iran’s efforts to acquire nuclear energy capabilities.

The Question Is-What is the Caspian Sea?

Yeah, the Caspian Sea, one of the most underreported stories in the last decade, is an area of vital strategic importance. The reason for this, of course, has nothing to do with fishing rights amongst the five neighboring nations of Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan.

It’s all about the oil, reserves of which sit beneath the surface of the large body of water, which is actually a large inland lake comprising varying degrees of salinity owing to it’s lack of any outlets. The oil reserves are plentiful, and thus of vital strategic importance.

Russia plans to run a pipeline from its area of the sea through Europe, while Turkmenistan has recently began development of a multi-billion dollar beach resort area in order to encourage investment in its own share. Yes, a tentative agreement is within reach, and this is largely owing to Russia’s support for nuclear development within Iran. Still, it has not been an easy agreement to reach. After all, more Iranian oil in the market would mean a glut, which would of course mean a lowering of prices per barrel of oil. Suddenly, Russians’ holdings are not so lucrative. They are nevertheless considerable, and a huge leverage and bargaining chip.

Oil company executives have kept themselves up at night worrying about this situation. They must now contend with the possibility of a sudden glut of Iranian oil in addition to development of nuclear energy within the unstable region of the oil-producing Middle East, followed by vast oil reserve holdings within Russia, which will now exercise ever-greater controls of the market. The European Union does not like it any more than the energy executives and their political pawns here, though there is little it would seem that they can do about it. For a brief period there were whispers that since the Caspian is designated a sea, it falls under the auspices of international law-meaning the UN. Of course, Vladimir Putin has as much fear and respect for a UN division as Stalin did the theoretical one wielded by the Pope, and so that idea never gained much traction. Besides, as I said, the Caspian is a lake, and any attempts to designate it as being otherwise would meet with an obvious Russian veto that one would be hard-pressed to honestly say is illegitimate.

So now, you know the real major reason Europe is so determined to go green. It does not have anything to do with protecting the environment. That is nothing but a mirage. The real reason is their determination to protect themselves from domination, not only from the Middle East, but also and probably especially from Russia, the one nation on earth they seem to truly fear above all others.