Current Presidential Prospects-From Better To Worse

This is my assessment as to what kind of President each of the current contenders for the office would be if they won. Some of these predictions might seem to be a bit “out there”, and admittedly, they require certain unforeseeable circumstances in a good many cases. One thing about it, I only have to worry about being proven wrong one time, so I just let myself go with this.

A general assessment is followed by a prediction as to how many terms each one would be liable to serve, followed by what I see as a probable caricature that would be the running theme in the editorial pages. Bear in mind, these caricatures I do not claim would necessarily be fair ones in all cases, just that they are probable and to a point even predictable.

Finally, I compare a potential presidency with one of the past. I should be clear on something especially with this assessment. Such a comparison should not be construed as meaning that a contender would be like that president in every detail. Perhaps most importantly, comparison with what is generally conceived as a good or successful presidency is no indication that the contender would be comparable in scope of success. There could in fact be negative connotations to such comparisons even under what might initially be seen as the best of comparisons. In some cases, the reverse might well be as true.

I list them here in order as to which, in my opinion, would be the best, on down to the ones I feel would be the absolute worse.


Fred Thompson-He will probably not win the Republican nomination, his chances of winning the presidency would be a fifty-fifty proposition if he did, and he would probably be a one-term president if he won. Despite this, I still hold that he would be the best of the entire batch of current contenders from both parties. The reason for this is-he gets it. He understands exactly how the country is supposed to work, ideally-as a union of fifty states. If that confuses you, simply look up the definition of the word “state”.

Anymore, most people seem to view states more as regions, or even as overgrown counties. Fred Thompson understands the truth, that they are actually, in a sense, semi-autonomous nations in their own right, bound together by a common economy and foreign policy, with specific constitutional rights granted to all its citizens, the most important of which are those outlined within the Bill of Rights.

If Fred Thompson wins, especially if he enjoyed a majority in Congress, it would be the biggest culture shock to the nation since FDR. If his party stayed in the minority, he would be hampered and hamstrung at every turn. In either case, I seriously doubt he would be re-elected, but even with all the problems he would face, he would still be an infinitely better president than any of the others. I have this strange idea, though, that if he won, he would be so disgusted with the process that he would step down after one term of office, especially if he did manage to appoint three judicial conservatives to the bench in place of three liberals.

That in fact may well end up being his one major accomplishment, and possibly his only one. He would appoint probably two, possibly even three, judges to the Supreme Court that would be more in line with the founder’s intentions as to judicial philosophy. That is probably the only reason he is running to begin with, because he is obviously so not taken with the political process-and who the fuck can blame him?

One term

Caricature-Exhausted, wrinkled old man

Most like-James Madison

Elliot Richardson-This guy has a lot going for him in the way of accomplishments and qualifications. He has been and done it all, in all branches of government, except the judiciary. He is more or less liberal, without being a far left loon about it. His foreign policy qualifications are second to none. His government experience is considerable as well.

I misspoke in an earlier post when I said Joe Biden was the most qualified Democratic candidate. On giving it further thought, this guy is the most experienced of all the candidates, possibly of both parties. It is a shame he does not have a snowball’s chance in hell of getting the Democratic Party nomination. The only problem I see with him is the potential for yet more left-wing judicial appointments, a demand for which he would be under intense pressure by the activist left wing of the Democratic Party.

In the unlikely event, however, that he is nominated (and I think he would win the general election if he was), he would almost certainly be a two term president. Hell, the guy even looks like Tom Bosley-how could you not like Richie Cunningham’s dad? He could work with an evenly divided Congress, or even a Republican majority, probably better than he would a Democratic majority. The long-term results would probably be better at least.

Two terms

Caricature-Overly relaxed dress and persona

Most like-Richard Nixon

3. Rudy Giuliani-Yeah, I know the conservatives consider this guy a leftist, and I know the liberals consider him a fascist thug. He is also controversial in his private life. I personally think he is going to go the way of Howard Dean, and will crash and burn by the time Super Tuesday comes along, which will unite the activist base of both parties with glee.

Too bad, because he would probably be, not a great president, but still a pretty damn good one, if for no other reason than I take him at his word when he promises he will appoint strict constructionists to the Supreme Court. I also think he will be a bit like Truman when it comes to politics, which would be a refreshing change.

Ask yourself this question. If you were given a hard choice, that you had no choice but to make, would you prefer to live in New York City three years prior to the Giuliani administration, or three years after his administration ended?

Yeah, me too-that’s why I like him. Of course, he has his faults. He has the mindset of a prosecutor, which can be troublesome. He might have to be reined in on matters of civil liberties from time to time. By the same token, however, some of the reiners-in-waiting need to be reined in from time to time themselves, and Giuliani is just the guy to do it.

He would have a troublesome presidency, but I think on balance he would be good, maybe very good. I can’t help but feel, however, he would be a one-termer. He would be renominated, though with difficulty, and a divided Republican party would all but insure a Democratic victory the next time around, as he would in the meantime lose a lot of the Democratic and independent support which might be responsible for his first term victory.

One term

Caricature-Exaggerated skull-like features

Most like-Harry Truman

Mike Huckabee-The Huckster would probably be a fairly good president, and a two termer, but not a lot would be accomplished, other than one very important thing. That is, he might well ease the tensions and blunt a great deal of the rhetoric that has divided the nation, and at the same time is a symptom of the poisonous nature of modern day politics. He would be more liberal than most liberals think he would be, and more conservative than most conservatives fear he would be.

In other words, he would be, more or less, a right-of-center moderate, which means he would please nobody. In the end though, I think most people would pull the lever for him a second time, for no other reason than times would be pretty good, and he would get credit for a new era of more civil political and cultural discourse.

Two terms

Caricature-Friendly but naive.

Most like-James Monroe

Mitt Romney-He would probably be a two-termer. He would probably be a pretty good president. Without any doubt, he would at least try his damndest to be a good one. He would not, however, be one of the great ones. He’s just too damn slick, and in trying to please everybody, he will end up pissing everybody off a great many times. Yet, he would probably win re-election handily, though not in a landslide. Why? Because most Americans would come to recognize, and pretty quickly, that this guy is never going to do anything that is too off the wall.

Have you ever wondered what you would have if you created a hybrid of George H. W. Bush and current president Bush? Look no further than Mitt Romney.

Two terms

Caricature-Appearance oriented, unaware of stains on clothes and face.

Most like-George H. W. Bush

Joe Biden-Probably a two-termer, and probably, on balance, a pretty good president, but his judicial appointments would probably insure yet three more decades of a seriously divided court. His major accomplishments would probably be in the realm of foreign affairs, which is his major area of expertise. He would be moderate in domestic affairs, and would actually come closer than anybody in dealing with such serious issues as health care, education, and the environment, in a manner that wouldn’t be too far out in the stratosphere. This is a guy that wouldn’t back away from a fight, including with factions in his own party. On balance, however, he would be a merely good president. However, in the event of an international or other emergency, he might well rise to the occasion and be one of the great ones.

Two terms.

Caricature-toothy grin with word balloons that trail off into apparent infinity.

Most like-Franklin Roosevelt

Chris Dodd-This is the guy that I have no doubt in my mind would come closer to using a nuke than any other of the current contenders. You can see it in his eyes if you look closely enough. If he wins, somebody somewhere is toast. I also have no doubt in my mind he would be the most likely to find an excuse to do so just under a year before his bid for re-election, which he would go on to win in a landslide.

He would also be the most likely man to capture Osama Bin Laden, which he would make one of his top presidential priorities.

Unfortunately, he would not rein in government spending (in fact it would increase), his judicial appointments would be troublesome at best, and his domestic policies, while they would not be horrible for working class Americans and the poor, yet would be geared toward corporate America at the expense of small business. There would be scandals galore in a Dodd administration.

Two terms

Caricature-Thick, bushy eyebrows barely hiding a malicious glare with insincere smile.

Most Like-Lyndon Johnson

Ron Paul-He would try to run the country the way it should be run, especially in terms of foreign affairs, but he would move too quickly and cause such a disruption in the economy that he would end up possibly the first president since John Tyler to be kicked out of his own party. He might be the first president to be both impeached and convicted in trial by Senate, more than likely for sheer incompetence. He is also the most likely to be assassinated. He would most definitely not be re-elected. His judicial appointments would be the only thing salvageable as to a positive legacy.

One term (if that).

Caricature-Threatening glare, wielding a kitchen knife against a mountain of pork barrel spending bills and bureaucratic red tape.

Most like-James Buchanan

John Edwards-He would possibly pass many laws, a great many of which would be overturned, others that would end up problematic in terms of tax increases and economic impact. In the foreign press, he would be caricatured as a young boy in various childish activities in the midst of serious minded grown-ups. By the time his first term was over, he would be roundly spanked in the next general election. Lebannon would probably erupt, while Iran would-well, be Iran.

One term

Caricature-Little boy.

Most like-Jimmy Carter.

Hillary Clinton-The Hildebeast would probably inspire more sighs of relief in her first term than an amusement park ride, and more cries of outrage and terror than a horror movie. What she would not do is accomplish a hell of a lot. One of her accomplishments would be a possible normalization of relations with Iran. This would be enough to insure her re-election. Otherwise, not a lot here. A few good bills, quite a few more problematic ones, etc., etc. Her major accomplishment, outside of the Iranian initiative I mentioned, would simply be that she would be the first female president.

By the time her second term is over, however, the downside to that is, it might be a long, long time before most people would consider voting for another one. She might do some good on health care, provided she takes a moderate stance, otherwise she will, by the time two terms is over, be in the end about what most people expect from Hillary Clinton.

Two terms

Caricature-Extremely thick, straight down from waist to ankles, and an equally thick and obviously practiced and insincere smile that barely masks a hidden rage.

Most like-Theodore Roosevelt

Duncan Hunter-Hunter would definitely have a hard time and in the end, his only accomplishment would be in the area of judicial appointments. For all his good intentions, I do not think he is equipped to deal with Washington politics or the international arena, and would tend to take the wrong advice from the wrong people, who would lead him around by the nose and possibly end up maneuvering him into a major war, one that would be unnecessary and ill advised. I am thinking here mainly about Venezuela. Now that would be another Vietnam, and would result in oil prices that would make a hundred dollars per barrel seem like the “good old days.”

One term.

Caricature-Cowboy on a pony.

Most like-Franklin Pierce

Tom Tancredo-He could possibly rally the nation behind a comprehensive immigration reform, which would not be as hard line as most people assume it would be. To illustrate what I am trying to say here, think in terms of Richard Nixon going to China. Aside from this, and judicial appointments, not a lot here. He would rein in excessive spending to a greater degree then even Paul or Thompson. Unfortunately, in doing so, he might cause a remarkable downturn in the economy resulting in a major recession, and could instigate a trade war with China. He would be one term due to this and due to increasing military activity, especially in the Middle East, which under him would not go well, to say the least.

One term.

Caricature-Unaware of racist nature of supporters and surroundings.

Most Like-Zachary Taylor

John McCain-It’s my honest opinion that, sooner or later, there is going to be a president that is going to do something, or have something done to him, that no other one has ever done or experienced, while he is in office. There will be a president whose wife will be the first to be a proven and current whore. There will be one who will turn out to be a pedophile. There will be a president who will be the first one assassinated on foreign soil. One will be murdered by his wife (that one might actually have already happened, with Harding), and there will be one that will end up committing suicide while in office.

And, there will eventually be one who will, in time, demonstrate for the nation and the world to see, in no uncertain terms, that he is certifiably insane. By the time his one term in office is over, John McCain will be seen as a nice and well-meaning man with absolutely no grip on reality. He will be seriously advised, in no uncertain terms, to not even think about running for re-election, and he will have no problem understanding this, if nothing else.

He will not bring spending under control, immigration policy will not be enforced, and nothing will be solved in the arena of international relations. Watching the McCain presidency will be like watching two things at the same time- a train wreck, and “You Are There”. He will be a placeholder president with nothing to say but a lot of pleasant sounding nonsense, and nothing to do but hope no one catches on that he does not have a clue. Unfortunately, in reality he will be the last one to catch on.

One term

Caricature-Wets his pants, puddle around ankles, confused.

Most like-John Adams

Barak Obama-He will have absolutely no accomplishments of which to speak, other than being the first black president. He is an inspiring speaker, and in fact is very much like a rock star. However, in order to be a great president-or for that matter, a fair to middling one-one is required to be much like the conductor of a huge symphony orchestra. Barak Obama would be more akin to the front man of an overly large, discordant garage band, and this would translate, in political terms, into a bureaucratic nightmare. Barak Obama would, I am afraid, be a one hit wonder.

One term

Caricature-Rock star running from mob of former fans.

Most like-John Kennedy

Mike Gravell-Mike Gravell is not insane, like John McCain. He is, however, something of a fucking nut. The bad thing here is, you cannot impeach somebody for being a nut. The really bad thing is, this guy would probably be re-elected, because he comes across as likeable, in a grandfatherly kind of way. It is Mike Gravell, not Dennis Kucinich, who is the Democratic version of Ron Paul. Under him, Homeland Security and the INS would be gutted, along with a lot of other agencies. Inflation would end up going through the roof, crime statistics would soar, and the population would increase by a full percentage point or more by the time of his first term due mainly to easing of immigration restrictions. Unfortunately, the more negative consequences of his actions would not be readily apparent until he was well into his second term.

Two terms

Caricature-Unaware of reality

Most like-Grover Cleveland

Dennis Kucinich-

The little Smurf from Cleveland is a lot tougher than he appears to be on the surface, and his major impact would be international affairs, where he would be controversial just due to the fact that he is not the sap a lot of international leaders would assume he is. This could lead to ruptures with some allies, though at least some of our more strident opponents would come to respect him. His major problem will be in domestic affairs, and his major failure would be his failure to establish a “Department of Peace”. By the time his second year in office was over, he would be faced with a veto proof Republican majority in the Senate, and even a greater Republican majority in the House of Representatives, while a number of tacitly blue states would gravitate firmly to the red column for years to come.

The more fanatical Republicans should get down on their knees and pray to God every night that Dennis Kucinich should by some miracle win the Democratic nomination, and they should willingly sacrifice their children to the fires of Moloch in hopes that he wins the presidential election. Because the simple fact is, if he did, Dennis Kucinich would probably single-handedly destroy the Democratic Party.

One term

Caricature-Ridiculously exaggerated short height.

Most like-Woodrow Wilson

As I end this exercise in candidate assessment, one thing should be kept in mind. Many times, and probably in fact more often than not, what makes or breaks a presidency is not any one or even groups of issues, or any national or international emergency, nor is it scandals, or the top people appointed to fill cabinet positions. All of these things are important, as is economic performance, international relations, or any of the divisive issues of any given day.

In the end, however, what makes or breaks a presidency are the people no one ever knows-the second, third, and fourth tier level of bureaucrats who actually run the day-to-day operations of government. These are the people who either get things done, for good or for bad, or bring things to a grinding halt. They are also responsible for the vast majority of the waste and inefficiency that is the United States government, as well as the unbreakable gridlock that is Washington politics today.

These second, third and fourth tier operatives are to be found not only in the ranks of government bureaucrats, but also in the so-called fourth estate of media, and in the PACS and other special interest groups. These are the people who operate behind the scenes, behind the shadows of those individuals who are the more well known public personas that we associate as the face of an issue, department, or organization. Politicians ignore their potential influence at their own peril. The rest of us rarely give them a thought.

Yet, they are the ones who grease the wheels and conduct the business of government under a labrynthine maze which few can rarely fathom, much beyond peering beneath the outer layer. They run the government, or influence it’s policies, or report on it’s inner workings, not for the benefit of the nation at large, but in furtherance of their own agendas.

A great lot of the reasons some of these candidates may not be ranked as high as some would like, is due to my assessment as to their adaptability, and in some cases even their awareness, to this very real fact.