I try to not allow my blog to be hijacked by electoral politics. After all, this is not a national election year, and we can all use a break from the constant deceptions, manipulations, and outright lies. Still, it is advisable to keep abreast of the more noteworthy political shenanigans. On the other hand, there are some important developments in politics this week, so I will allow myself the luxury of playing the political pundit. I like to do that, of course, because I am always right.
Harry Reed’s Senate slumber party did not turn out so well, as he did not get enough Republican crossover votes to accomplish his purported task of demanding a deadline for troop withdrawal, ostensibly slated for completion by April of next year. He got four Republicans to vote for him, but even if he had gotten the four others he targeted-John Warner of Virginia, George Voinovich of Ohio, Dick Lugar of Indiana, and Pete Domenici of Arizona-he still would have ended up four votes shy.
That is because there were three Democrats and one independent (Joe Liebermann) who voted with the Republicans. Of course, it does not really matter as, of course, any such bill would face a sure veto, which would hold up if challenged. This would just make it that much harder on Republicans, who are hoping against any seemingly realistic hope for a drastic improvement on the ground in Iraq by the middle of this September.
Which brings me to Fred Thompson, Hollywood actor and star of the series Law And Order, and former Tennessee Senator. Many conservatives see Thompson as their great white hope. He leads in a great many polls, including Zogby, and by all indications, he is planning on running.
So what is he waiting for? Christmas? Labor Day? Yeah, Labor Day. That would pretty much coincide with the time allotted for the “Surge”. By then, we will know for sure what already seems to be the standard wisdom as of now-it’s not working. If that turns out to be the case, it is even more trouble for the Republicans.
That is what Fred is waiting for, then, in my opinion. He plans to tailor his message accordingly. After all, if he declared shortly after the Fourth of July, as originally believed, he would have to take a stand on what most consider to be the most important and pressing issue of the day.
If he came out wholly in support of the Presidents policy, and of the Surge, then he risks his message blowing up in his face in the ever increasingly likely event the Surge proves to be the failure it looks to be.
On the other hand, were he to come out that early in opposition to the President and his policy regarding the Surge, then he risks not only disappointing but also irretrievably alienating a large segment of the Republican base. That is something no GOP candidate can afford to do if he or she hopes to win a national election, and especially a primary contest.
In other words, Thompson is playing it smart. A bit craven, but smart, nevertheless. He understands he will not attract a sizeable portion of Democratic breakaway voters, so he has to concentrate on holding the Republican voters. Unfortunately, that requires walking a tightrope, as a large segment of the GOP voters are becoming increasingly disappointed in the Iraq War, and want it ended one way or another.
By the end of September, Thompson will be able to craft his message in such a way as to coincide with the realities on the ground in Iraq. Though he will still have to walk that tightrope, he can walk it more comfortably and for less time, and in such a way that he might be able to hold the GOP coalition together. This might also enable him to draw support from a substantial number of independent voters as well, which will definitely be a necessity in order for him to win the general election.
That is something he could never do if he declares early and comes out as a hawk in support of the President and the Surge, especially if that policy indeed turns out to be the failed policy it seems destined to be.
Of course, you might not believe as I do that this is such a divisive issue within the rank-and-file of GOP voters. In that case, I point out this fact. One of the staunchest groups of Republican voters and supporters are military personnel and their families, who tend to vote Republican by as much as 2-to-1.
So, what candidate does this important Republican demographic currently support? No, it is not a Democrat. In fact, one Republican in particular has gotten more support from this group, in the way of campaign contributions, than any other single candidate has so far-from either party. The point being-
That Republican candidate is Ron Paul, the former Libertarian and now Republican Texas Congressman and current Presidential candidate who is, as of now, the only such candidate among the GOP who has openly called for ending the Iraq War and bringing the troops home.
You can damn well bet the Wall Street set is sitting up and taking notice of that. It is an equally safe bet the RNC is as well. After all, by the time September rolls around, this could well be a public relations nightmare. With just a year to go from that point on before the elections, they are going to have some hard choices to make, some that Mr. Bush is not going to like.
They had better realize that Mr. Bush is going to be too, errrr, “busy” with the “duties” of his office, to do much campaigning for them anyway. Otherwise, by the time the 2008 general election gets here, the best campaign pitch the GOP might be able to come up with might well be-
“Please vote for us. We promise not to fuck up this time.”
