Just an observation about Hillary. I wonder how Obama's supporters feel about him potentially tapping her (sorry for the mental image there) for Secretary of State. Bear in mind many of Obama's supporters flocked to him over her due to her centrist posture during the primaries, and especially for her support for the Iraq War and the War On Terror.
Now I'm sure they would be fine if Obama appointed her as Secretary of Education, or maybe even Health and Human Services-but Secretary of State, filled by someone they see as a war monger? That's got to bite, probably even more than if he appointed her Secretary of Defense or National Security Adviser.
I'm going to take a wait and see attitude. I always had this mental image of Hillary Clinton as an American liberal version of Margaret Thatcher. I always thought that if she became President, she would do with Iran what Nixon did with China. Maybe she will still do so in this capacity-as the Democratic Henry Kissinger.
Mainly, though, I wanted to point out the sheer grasp of this appointment, assuming it goes through. Back in the early days of the Republic, when a President appointed someone as Secretary of State, that was almost seen as an anointing of the next presidential successor. That kind of went by the wayside after Buchanan's horrible term in office. It was after him and Lincoln that people started to look toward the state Governors. If you were a successful Governor, you had a decent shot provided you could get the support of the party bosses. If you also happened to have a distinguished military career, so much the better.
Hillary has neither going for her, and her stint as a Senator is not likely to win her more support. Obama's rise to the Presidency by way of the US Senate is a rarity. Senators usually don't connect with the people sufficiently to win the office. There is probably nothing Hillary could possibly do in the Senate that would enable her to follow Obama's success.
However, if she were to have a stellar career as Secretary of State, in a fairly successful Obama Presidency-or even if she is one of the very few bright spots therein-it could add immeasurably to her influence and popularity.
People have wondered what the trade-off was for Hillary's support of Obama. I think we might be seeing it here. Don't be surprised also if Biden doesn't decline to run for re-election as VP in 2012, providing Obama's presidency is seen as fairly successful and popular. Hillary would then be the obvious choice to replace him on the Democratic ticket.
If Obama's presidency is a disaster, however, it will be a different story. Biden will stick around. After all, who else would want to replace him? Would Hillary remove herself from the failed Administration under this scenario? Hard to say. It would be difficult for her to attack the Administration and risk splitting the party and expect to win in 2016. It doesn't seem feasible that she would run for Governor of New York at that point with an eye toward running for President before her first term of office was up. She could think of other ways to stay at the forefront, as an activist chairwoman for some cause or another.
I said I would take a wait and see approach, but actually, I think Hillary will probably do the job well, even if the Obama Administration in general is a disaster. Let me restate that. She will do what most Americans these days consider a good job. I think she will try to pursue America's interests to the best of her ability, at least. She has every reason in the world to do so.
Hillary Clinton still wants to be President. She is one determined creature.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Monday, November 17, 2008
Bailout Blues
I hate to say it, but all of this Bailout talk that has been going on over the last two or three months can probably, to a large extent, be summed up with one descriptive word-payoff. I know that's simplistic and doesn't begin to tell the whole story, and that might not have even been the original intent. However, it seems to me that as more and more people begin to line up at the trough to feed from the slop, its obvious that a lot of people want in on the game, and its hard to blame them.
It's almost like the people that are leaving power set this up as a way of rewarding jobs well done, and the incoming power elites are going along with it as a means of purchasing and in some cases keeping their loyalty.
There are some legitimate problems, without a doubt, and there would no doubt be real chaos if this were not done, but there probably will be anyway. This is just prolonging the agony, though you can make the case that it might cushion the initial shock somewhat.
I've been thinking for a long time now, the more intertwined the world economy becomes, the more people are going to be affected when-not if, but when-it crashes and burns.
It's time for the US to return to the days of bi-lateral trade and defense treaties. The recent chaos screams that to anybody with ears to hear. I am not-repeat not-promoting isolationism. I do not propose that we build a two hundred foot tall electric fence around the entirety of the United States borders and never let anybody in or out. I do not suggest we never trade with anyone, or that we never enter into mutual defense pacts. But the current situation is untenable, simply because it is unmanageable. Where is the accountability? Multinational bureaucracies are a necessity to oversee multilateral trade and defense treaties, yet they are a government and a law unto themselves. It's time to pull the plug.
It would be better if we could just phase out gradually the way we phased in, but I don't think that will work. I wonder if its really too late to do anything but just set back and watch as the world either enters into a period of repressive multinational bureaucratic tinkering with national sovereignty, or the world collapses and falls back into a period of Dark Ages tribalism. I don't think there's any easy answers.
Maybe we're already in the Dark Ages and have been for some time. Did the people that lived in Greece between the Mycenaean and Classical periods really have it that bad, from their perspective? It's a lot easier to judge things from the outside looking in?
Put another way, have we really had it all that good? You tend to adjust your outlook to meet the demands of any current situation. Is there's any kind of Renaissance in our future comparable to that which followed in the Europe of the Middle Ages, or with the Classical Greeks? I hate to say it, but by the time it gets here all of us here now will probably be dust.
It's almost like the people that are leaving power set this up as a way of rewarding jobs well done, and the incoming power elites are going along with it as a means of purchasing and in some cases keeping their loyalty.
There are some legitimate problems, without a doubt, and there would no doubt be real chaos if this were not done, but there probably will be anyway. This is just prolonging the agony, though you can make the case that it might cushion the initial shock somewhat.
I've been thinking for a long time now, the more intertwined the world economy becomes, the more people are going to be affected when-not if, but when-it crashes and burns.
It's time for the US to return to the days of bi-lateral trade and defense treaties. The recent chaos screams that to anybody with ears to hear. I am not-repeat not-promoting isolationism. I do not propose that we build a two hundred foot tall electric fence around the entirety of the United States borders and never let anybody in or out. I do not suggest we never trade with anyone, or that we never enter into mutual defense pacts. But the current situation is untenable, simply because it is unmanageable. Where is the accountability? Multinational bureaucracies are a necessity to oversee multilateral trade and defense treaties, yet they are a government and a law unto themselves. It's time to pull the plug.
It would be better if we could just phase out gradually the way we phased in, but I don't think that will work. I wonder if its really too late to do anything but just set back and watch as the world either enters into a period of repressive multinational bureaucratic tinkering with national sovereignty, or the world collapses and falls back into a period of Dark Ages tribalism. I don't think there's any easy answers.
Maybe we're already in the Dark Ages and have been for some time. Did the people that lived in Greece between the Mycenaean and Classical periods really have it that bad, from their perspective? It's a lot easier to judge things from the outside looking in?
Put another way, have we really had it all that good? You tend to adjust your outlook to meet the demands of any current situation. Is there's any kind of Renaissance in our future comparable to that which followed in the Europe of the Middle Ages, or with the Classical Greeks? I hate to say it, but by the time it gets here all of us here now will probably be dust.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Klan Justice
The above photo, obviously taken during the primaries, was probably meant to be ironic, or perhaps not, possibly even based on the prevailing assumption at the time that Obama would be less likely than Hillary to win the General Election. Now, in the wake of Obama's victory, there have been a string of Klan stories, most notably one that has been unfolding in Northern Kentucky, where Morris Dees of the Southern Poverty Law Center has just successfully concluded a lawsuit against Ron Edwards, the Imperial Wizard of the Imperial Klans of America. From the CNN post-
The jury found that the Imperial Klans of America and its founder wrongfully targeted 16-year-old Jordan Gruver, an American citizen of Panamanian and Native-American descent.
The verdict included $1.5 million in compensatory damages and $1 million in punitive damages against "Imperial Wizard" Ron Edwards.
The law center said before the verdict that a large damage award could break the Klan group, allowing the teen and the law center to seize the group's assets, including its headquarters, a 15-acre compound in Dawson Springs, Kentucky.
"We look forward to collecting every dime that we can for our client and to putting the Imperial Klans of America out of business," said SPLC founder and chief trial attorney Morris Dees, who tried the case.
Mr. Dees had earlier, as a means of explaining the grounds for the case and what he hoped to accomplish, released this video-
Interestingly enough, I got this video directly from the website of The Imperial Klans of America itself.
Ron Edwards then in response claimed that the lawsuit was without merit, and that Dees is just trying to rake in more millions using himself and his Klan as the fall guys. He goes on to say that he stays within the law in all his activities, and that all members of the Imperial Klans of America are likewise obliged to stay within the law, from which no deviations are tolerated. To this end, he made the following video, also available on the Klan's website.
He seems to think that Dees is just out to make money out of the lawsuit, both through the judgment and through donations, and points out that, even if he succeeded in putting the Imperial Klans of America out of business, he would not do away with the Klan, as the Klan is made up of many separate and independent organizations.
I guess Dees feels more than likely that it is one giant step toward his larger goal of eliminating the Klan by breaking them financially. He also, in the course of the case, produced a witness, a former Klansman who testified under oath that at one time Edwards tried to procure his services for the purposes of assassinating Mr. Dees, who claims that he and his organization have received many threats from numerous hate groups.
The following text copied from the Klan's website makes it easy to see where one could jump to the conclusion that not only is this a hate group, but that it could easily encourage violent activity.
We come in the name of THE LORD God JESUS CHRIST, Amen.
If you are not of the White race, this web site is not for the likes of YOU! We reserve the right of free speech to state our views whether our enemies like it or not. The IKA hates: Muds, spics, kikes and niggers. This is our God given right! In no way do we advocate violence. We believe in educating our people to the monopolistic Jewish control of the world's banks, governments, and media. White education is what ZOG hates and why it tries to imprison White Racialists.
This is a disclaimer, of course, meant to cover the group in the event of violence. You even have to agree to a disclaimer before entering the website. Of course, the kinds of people that Klan attracts to a large degree are the kinds of people that might make such disclaimers necessary.
Evidently, it wasn't enough for the jurors in the Brandenburg case. They seem to have sided with Mr. Dees in his assertion that Edwards and the Klan are responsible for the hatred and the violence they incite, however they try to pretty it up afterward.
I think this might be a test case, and that there will be more involving not only the Klan, but others as well. My only concern is how far it could be taken in the zeal to prosecute hate speech and incitement to violence. These things have a habit of taking on a life of their own.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
The Republican Party-Where Should It Go From Here?
What the Republican Party needs to do in the aftermath of the last election debacle is more than mere soul-searching and finger pointing. The finger pointing is inappropriate. The soul-searching is unnecessary.
The Republican Party has been described as a three-legged stool made up of three different types of conservatives. There are those who are economic conservatives. There are others who are more concerned with social conservative values. Finally, the third leg is those who are foreign policy conservatives.
I think the more apt description would be three-legged cauldron. The problem is, the witches brew they have cooked up over the last thirty years is not exactly most accurately described as conservative. Yet, each of the three seems content to point fingers of blame at the other without looking in more than cursory detail (if indeed that much) at their own failings.
The economic conservatives have merrily raped the treasury over the course of the last eight years or more and have engaged in the kind of pork-barrel politics and corporate welfare policies that would make a Great Society Democrat blush.
The social conservatives have never met a constitutional amendment they didn’t love, whether it be pro-life, defense of marriage, or even one to prevent flag burning. They seem to love federalism except when federalism doesn’t give them what they want in every state of the union.
Finally, we have the foreign policy conservatives, who have always been the most immoderate and by far the less conservative of the three. They are arguably the biggest threat to the GOP. They are not one wing, but two, and they have been at war with each other for some time now. Since they are the worse offenders, but by no means the only danger to the conservative ideology of the GOP, I will tackle them first.
Bluntly put, the Republicans need to kick the Neocons to the curb. They are the cause of the widespread dissatisfaction with the Republican Party stemming from their Iraq War policies. Had we followed their lead to this day, what happened the last election would look like a razor thin margin of victory. Obama’s victory would have been of Johnson-Goldwater proportions, and the Democrats would probably have a solid sixty-two seats or more in the Senate. In the House, they would look more like a third-party joke than a major party.
The Neocon philosophy of war is textbook Kennedy-Johnson and even Truman philosophy. We saw how well all that worked out. It ruined Truman’s presidency, despite the esteem he is held in today, and it ruined Johnson’s presidency as well. It seems predicated on the proposition that if you establish a presence and fight a defensive war of containment, all will work out in the end-an end that never comes. North Korea and South Korea are still technically at war. Vietnam ended with our humiliating defeat and withdrawal. This is quite simply because we were never permitted to fight a true offensive, but relegated instead to defensive posturing only.
Nixon attempted to reverse this horrendous and fallacious policy but was hampered every step of the way by left-wing protesters and by an unsympathetic (to say the least) media blitz that portrayed us as the bad guys. In truth, by the time Nixon took office the damage was probably already irreversible.
The resulting take-over of the Democratic Party by the far left saw the migration of this incredibly naive philosophy to the Republican Party, where it took root and, nourished by the flames and gasses of 9/11, it asserted it’s power over the Bush Administration. It was a failed policy, just as it was in the Korea and Vietnam conflicts, and was reversed only by the adoption of the Surge, led by David Petraeus.
Truthfully, however, there has never been a foreign policy conservative of any authority since the days of the Hoover Administration. The closest of any note is Patrick Buchanan, who had no foreign policy authority in the Nixon Administration. He was a mere speechwriter. Such true foreign policy conservatives are unlikely to acquire any influence under any major party, and this is simply because the fuel that powers the foreign policy engine of the United States is the money found in defense contracts. You can only make so much money by funding weapons systems to defend the United States, so you have to invent boogy-men where none exist in order to “spread the wealth around”. You have to keep NATO years after it has outlived its usefulness and expand it into the face of national entities who have every reason to not want it there, and then you take their reaction as “proof” of its necessity.
This is not conservative by any stretch of the imagination, and it needs to stop. For now, however, it would be beneficial just to rein in the Neocons. They are off the charts. Well, remember, they were originally Democrats. By the way, I don’t want to hear anybody say that my use of the word Neocon is anti-Semitic. No it is not, and if you say that, you are being politically correct, something I despise from Republicans as much as I do from Democrats, if not more so.
The next thing Republicans should focus on is the economic conservatives. Their philosophy of lower taxes and less intrusive regulations is fine, and their recent burglaries of the state treasury in the name of corporate welfare under another name, atrocious as it is, should be a severe lesson for the party leaders as to what can happen when you have the wrong kinds of people in the wrong positions of power. The biggest thing they can learn, however, is the fact that some things just don’t play well. One of those things is their love affair with the philosophy of de-regulation. Nobody wants to hear it. That is just the facts, ma’am.
They should retool their message to insist on lessening regulations and making them less intrusive, more efficient, less burdensome, and less oppressive. Nobody wants to hear how they should be eliminated, and the term de-regulation smacks of precisely that. Sorry, that ship just won’t sail out of the docks-not in this day and age.
In a perfect world, there would be no need for regulations, and companies and corporations would act appropriately out of the greater good, due to a perception that it is in their own best long-term interests to do so. Unfortunately, we don’t live in a perfect world, and never will. Even if they could be convinced it is in their long-term best interests, far too many of them are concerned more with their short-term gains. It’s a dog eat dog world out there, so anybody that doesn’t fight fire with fire will just get burned. That’s just one reason to have some kind of regulations. Another reason for the federal government specifically to impose them would be that pollution, for example, doesn’t seem to care about state borders. A poison that is dumped in the Mississippi River somewhere between Missouri and Tennessee isn’t going to go away or stay where it’s at. It will float on down to Louisiana whether we like it or not. That’s just one example of why nobody buys it when Republicans preach the supposed value of de-regulation. It comes across as self-serving.
Otherwise, hey, let’s do away with all laws that punish any kind of criminal activity. If eliminating regulations on business and corporations will eliminate the need for regulations, well, I don’t know about anybody else, but I could certainly look forward to a world without murder, rape, or theft. Why outlaw such things when a desire for self-esteem and community respect would obviously negate the need for such laws?
Moving on to the third need for change, we peer within the social conservatives mindsets. I can sum this problem up with something I read somewhere else, but I don’t remember exactly who it was that said it, or where I read it. It is quite simply this-
“Not everybody wants to live in an Ozzie and Harriet world.”
Breaking that down into its various parts, not everybody cares that much about gay rights, the flag, or protecting the theoretical rights of fetuses within the wombs of rape or incest victims. Social conservatives need to understand that they do their various causes far more good by adopting postures that are more reasonable. Right to life amendments to the constitution, or aimed at protecting the flag, or incorporating the Ten Commandments in public schools and courthouses, just are not going to fly with the majority of Americans.
Finally, all Republicans need to do a better job at outreach to the various sectors of American society. For far too long now they have framed their cause around issues many people either see as relatively minor issues, or do not care about at all. Then of course, you have those who take the absolute opposite stance.
I hope I am not misunderstood here. I am not advocating that Republicans or conservatives abandon or even compromise their principles. They have already done that, and frankly, that is the cause of most of the problem.
There is nothing conservative about a foreign policy posture that seeks to be the guardian protector of the world, and there is certainly nothing conservative about nation building or in spreading democracy through force of arms. There is nothing conservative about the vast amounts of money funneled by way of defense contracts to feed an international machinery that is self-perpetuating for its own purposes.
There is nothing conservative about a domestic policy posture that rewards corporate malfeasance and the importation of American jobs with tax breaks and de-regulation, while engaging in profligate spending on credit.
Finally, there is nothing conservative about trying to ramrod constitutional amendments based on punitive means to change people’s behavior or to grant privileged status to a special class at the expense of others.
Conservatives are at their best when they promote the values of self-sufficiency, of small government with lower taxes and minimal regulation, and of respect for state’s rights-that last of which they have for far too long allowed the Left to frame as racist and reactionary.
There is not one single issue facing the country today that cannot be better served by a small government, low tax and relaxing of regulations approach, nor is there any problem the states can’t handle as well or better than the federal government, if they are only allowed to do so. Nor is it any business of a person in California if a woman in Kentucky can’t get an abortion based on the proposition that if she does not she might suffer from headaches or depression for a couple of months. Nor is it any business of anybody in Kentucky if a woman from California can get one just because she might not look good in a bathing suit for a while if she does not.
It’s not any business of some Baptist preacher in South Carolina if Mr. Sulu from Star Trek gets married to his male companion. Social conservatives need to get off this kick. This is not something to devote resources necessary for a constitutional amendment. It becomes less of an issue with every election, and will play even less well the next time it is used. If a gay couple moves in the house next door to me, I am relieved that they are a couple and not a single gay man who might be drunk and lonely one night and put me on the spot. Otherwise, I figure there’s a good chance at least one of them will make a good chess opponent. What they do with each other in bed is none of my concern. I also understand that whatever that is, they will do it with or without a marriage license. I am deeply concerned about animal abuse when it comes to gerbils, but that’s a different issue.
Finally, if somebody wants to burn the flag, as regrettable as that is, it’s not something I am going to lose a lot of sleep over. I figure the people that engage in such activities, as I’ve said many times, are only hurting their own causes with their actions with the majority of Americans. Since I oppose most if not all of what they stand for, frankly I have no intention of hindering them from making complete asses out of themselves.
We have the most unique country on the face of the earth, and I hope we keep it as is. The only way we can come close to hoping to do that is if at least one of the major parties realizes that we are special and unique for a reason. The further away we get from our original values as outlined in the constitution and the Bill of Rights, the further away we get from what made us great.
It’s bigger than mere capitalism, which is practiced to some degree everywhere. It’s more even than just democracy, which is in its pure form little more than mob rule.
It’s the concept of respect for both the majority as well as minority rights, and the concept of freedom in concert with the rule of law, along with the guarantees that neither the federal government nor the states shall impose its will on or against the people in those areas guaranteed by the founders to be off-limits, yet at the same time protected. It’s the concept that government governs best which governs least, yet is held accountable for doing what it has to do. It’s the ideal that the people make up the United States of America. The government is a mere construct, one which serves their will. It’s the concept that each individual state is in fact a sovereign state, bound together by certain constitutionally mandated prerogatives, yet at the same time, uniquely independent and free, as compared to, say for example, a former Soviet Republic, or a French Department, or a state in Germany or Mexico. All of these other “states” or regions are recognized as such only for the sake of administrative purposes. They have very little if any actual autonomy to speak of.
Besides, the more power an individual state has over its own internal affairs, when appropriate, the more people become involved in their state political matters. That is as it should be.
Finally, we should never forget what we stand for-“Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness”. Government can protect those ideals, though only to a degree. It can certainly never impose them. Think about it. How can you force somebody to live, to be free, or to be happy? All of the social engineering experiments in the world will never change that.
All government can do is protect people’s rights, and otherwise stay out of their way and allow them the freedom to do what they can do so long as they respect others and obey reasonable laws. That in a nutshell is what the Republican Party’s message should be. For the Republican Party to be successful from here on out in promoting the conservative cause is not that hard to do. Of course, they first have to actually be conservatives.
The Republican Party has been described as a three-legged stool made up of three different types of conservatives. There are those who are economic conservatives. There are others who are more concerned with social conservative values. Finally, the third leg is those who are foreign policy conservatives.
I think the more apt description would be three-legged cauldron. The problem is, the witches brew they have cooked up over the last thirty years is not exactly most accurately described as conservative. Yet, each of the three seems content to point fingers of blame at the other without looking in more than cursory detail (if indeed that much) at their own failings.
The economic conservatives have merrily raped the treasury over the course of the last eight years or more and have engaged in the kind of pork-barrel politics and corporate welfare policies that would make a Great Society Democrat blush.
The social conservatives have never met a constitutional amendment they didn’t love, whether it be pro-life, defense of marriage, or even one to prevent flag burning. They seem to love federalism except when federalism doesn’t give them what they want in every state of the union.
Finally, we have the foreign policy conservatives, who have always been the most immoderate and by far the less conservative of the three. They are arguably the biggest threat to the GOP. They are not one wing, but two, and they have been at war with each other for some time now. Since they are the worse offenders, but by no means the only danger to the conservative ideology of the GOP, I will tackle them first.
Bluntly put, the Republicans need to kick the Neocons to the curb. They are the cause of the widespread dissatisfaction with the Republican Party stemming from their Iraq War policies. Had we followed their lead to this day, what happened the last election would look like a razor thin margin of victory. Obama’s victory would have been of Johnson-Goldwater proportions, and the Democrats would probably have a solid sixty-two seats or more in the Senate. In the House, they would look more like a third-party joke than a major party.
The Neocon philosophy of war is textbook Kennedy-Johnson and even Truman philosophy. We saw how well all that worked out. It ruined Truman’s presidency, despite the esteem he is held in today, and it ruined Johnson’s presidency as well. It seems predicated on the proposition that if you establish a presence and fight a defensive war of containment, all will work out in the end-an end that never comes. North Korea and South Korea are still technically at war. Vietnam ended with our humiliating defeat and withdrawal. This is quite simply because we were never permitted to fight a true offensive, but relegated instead to defensive posturing only.
Nixon attempted to reverse this horrendous and fallacious policy but was hampered every step of the way by left-wing protesters and by an unsympathetic (to say the least) media blitz that portrayed us as the bad guys. In truth, by the time Nixon took office the damage was probably already irreversible.
The resulting take-over of the Democratic Party by the far left saw the migration of this incredibly naive philosophy to the Republican Party, where it took root and, nourished by the flames and gasses of 9/11, it asserted it’s power over the Bush Administration. It was a failed policy, just as it was in the Korea and Vietnam conflicts, and was reversed only by the adoption of the Surge, led by David Petraeus.
Truthfully, however, there has never been a foreign policy conservative of any authority since the days of the Hoover Administration. The closest of any note is Patrick Buchanan, who had no foreign policy authority in the Nixon Administration. He was a mere speechwriter. Such true foreign policy conservatives are unlikely to acquire any influence under any major party, and this is simply because the fuel that powers the foreign policy engine of the United States is the money found in defense contracts. You can only make so much money by funding weapons systems to defend the United States, so you have to invent boogy-men where none exist in order to “spread the wealth around”. You have to keep NATO years after it has outlived its usefulness and expand it into the face of national entities who have every reason to not want it there, and then you take their reaction as “proof” of its necessity.
This is not conservative by any stretch of the imagination, and it needs to stop. For now, however, it would be beneficial just to rein in the Neocons. They are off the charts. Well, remember, they were originally Democrats. By the way, I don’t want to hear anybody say that my use of the word Neocon is anti-Semitic. No it is not, and if you say that, you are being politically correct, something I despise from Republicans as much as I do from Democrats, if not more so.
The next thing Republicans should focus on is the economic conservatives. Their philosophy of lower taxes and less intrusive regulations is fine, and their recent burglaries of the state treasury in the name of corporate welfare under another name, atrocious as it is, should be a severe lesson for the party leaders as to what can happen when you have the wrong kinds of people in the wrong positions of power. The biggest thing they can learn, however, is the fact that some things just don’t play well. One of those things is their love affair with the philosophy of de-regulation. Nobody wants to hear it. That is just the facts, ma’am.
They should retool their message to insist on lessening regulations and making them less intrusive, more efficient, less burdensome, and less oppressive. Nobody wants to hear how they should be eliminated, and the term de-regulation smacks of precisely that. Sorry, that ship just won’t sail out of the docks-not in this day and age.
In a perfect world, there would be no need for regulations, and companies and corporations would act appropriately out of the greater good, due to a perception that it is in their own best long-term interests to do so. Unfortunately, we don’t live in a perfect world, and never will. Even if they could be convinced it is in their long-term best interests, far too many of them are concerned more with their short-term gains. It’s a dog eat dog world out there, so anybody that doesn’t fight fire with fire will just get burned. That’s just one reason to have some kind of regulations. Another reason for the federal government specifically to impose them would be that pollution, for example, doesn’t seem to care about state borders. A poison that is dumped in the Mississippi River somewhere between Missouri and Tennessee isn’t going to go away or stay where it’s at. It will float on down to Louisiana whether we like it or not. That’s just one example of why nobody buys it when Republicans preach the supposed value of de-regulation. It comes across as self-serving.
Otherwise, hey, let’s do away with all laws that punish any kind of criminal activity. If eliminating regulations on business and corporations will eliminate the need for regulations, well, I don’t know about anybody else, but I could certainly look forward to a world without murder, rape, or theft. Why outlaw such things when a desire for self-esteem and community respect would obviously negate the need for such laws?
Moving on to the third need for change, we peer within the social conservatives mindsets. I can sum this problem up with something I read somewhere else, but I don’t remember exactly who it was that said it, or where I read it. It is quite simply this-
“Not everybody wants to live in an Ozzie and Harriet world.”
Breaking that down into its various parts, not everybody cares that much about gay rights, the flag, or protecting the theoretical rights of fetuses within the wombs of rape or incest victims. Social conservatives need to understand that they do their various causes far more good by adopting postures that are more reasonable. Right to life amendments to the constitution, or aimed at protecting the flag, or incorporating the Ten Commandments in public schools and courthouses, just are not going to fly with the majority of Americans.
Finally, all Republicans need to do a better job at outreach to the various sectors of American society. For far too long now they have framed their cause around issues many people either see as relatively minor issues, or do not care about at all. Then of course, you have those who take the absolute opposite stance.
I hope I am not misunderstood here. I am not advocating that Republicans or conservatives abandon or even compromise their principles. They have already done that, and frankly, that is the cause of most of the problem.
There is nothing conservative about a foreign policy posture that seeks to be the guardian protector of the world, and there is certainly nothing conservative about nation building or in spreading democracy through force of arms. There is nothing conservative about the vast amounts of money funneled by way of defense contracts to feed an international machinery that is self-perpetuating for its own purposes.
There is nothing conservative about a domestic policy posture that rewards corporate malfeasance and the importation of American jobs with tax breaks and de-regulation, while engaging in profligate spending on credit.
Finally, there is nothing conservative about trying to ramrod constitutional amendments based on punitive means to change people’s behavior or to grant privileged status to a special class at the expense of others.
Conservatives are at their best when they promote the values of self-sufficiency, of small government with lower taxes and minimal regulation, and of respect for state’s rights-that last of which they have for far too long allowed the Left to frame as racist and reactionary.
There is not one single issue facing the country today that cannot be better served by a small government, low tax and relaxing of regulations approach, nor is there any problem the states can’t handle as well or better than the federal government, if they are only allowed to do so. Nor is it any business of a person in California if a woman in Kentucky can’t get an abortion based on the proposition that if she does not she might suffer from headaches or depression for a couple of months. Nor is it any business of anybody in Kentucky if a woman from California can get one just because she might not look good in a bathing suit for a while if she does not.
It’s not any business of some Baptist preacher in South Carolina if Mr. Sulu from Star Trek gets married to his male companion. Social conservatives need to get off this kick. This is not something to devote resources necessary for a constitutional amendment. It becomes less of an issue with every election, and will play even less well the next time it is used. If a gay couple moves in the house next door to me, I am relieved that they are a couple and not a single gay man who might be drunk and lonely one night and put me on the spot. Otherwise, I figure there’s a good chance at least one of them will make a good chess opponent. What they do with each other in bed is none of my concern. I also understand that whatever that is, they will do it with or without a marriage license. I am deeply concerned about animal abuse when it comes to gerbils, but that’s a different issue.
Finally, if somebody wants to burn the flag, as regrettable as that is, it’s not something I am going to lose a lot of sleep over. I figure the people that engage in such activities, as I’ve said many times, are only hurting their own causes with their actions with the majority of Americans. Since I oppose most if not all of what they stand for, frankly I have no intention of hindering them from making complete asses out of themselves.
We have the most unique country on the face of the earth, and I hope we keep it as is. The only way we can come close to hoping to do that is if at least one of the major parties realizes that we are special and unique for a reason. The further away we get from our original values as outlined in the constitution and the Bill of Rights, the further away we get from what made us great.
It’s bigger than mere capitalism, which is practiced to some degree everywhere. It’s more even than just democracy, which is in its pure form little more than mob rule.
It’s the concept of respect for both the majority as well as minority rights, and the concept of freedom in concert with the rule of law, along with the guarantees that neither the federal government nor the states shall impose its will on or against the people in those areas guaranteed by the founders to be off-limits, yet at the same time protected. It’s the concept that government governs best which governs least, yet is held accountable for doing what it has to do. It’s the ideal that the people make up the United States of America. The government is a mere construct, one which serves their will. It’s the concept that each individual state is in fact a sovereign state, bound together by certain constitutionally mandated prerogatives, yet at the same time, uniquely independent and free, as compared to, say for example, a former Soviet Republic, or a French Department, or a state in Germany or Mexico. All of these other “states” or regions are recognized as such only for the sake of administrative purposes. They have very little if any actual autonomy to speak of.
Besides, the more power an individual state has over its own internal affairs, when appropriate, the more people become involved in their state political matters. That is as it should be.
Finally, we should never forget what we stand for-“Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness”. Government can protect those ideals, though only to a degree. It can certainly never impose them. Think about it. How can you force somebody to live, to be free, or to be happy? All of the social engineering experiments in the world will never change that.
All government can do is protect people’s rights, and otherwise stay out of their way and allow them the freedom to do what they can do so long as they respect others and obey reasonable laws. That in a nutshell is what the Republican Party’s message should be. For the Republican Party to be successful from here on out in promoting the conservative cause is not that hard to do. Of course, they first have to actually be conservatives.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Bloodbath
Who is going to get the lion's share of the blame for the Republican defeat? Will it be McCain himself, or Sarah Palin? Could it possibly be Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, pictured above? My opinion is, McConnell might well get the ax as a means of heading off the rivalry between the McCain and Palin factions of the GOP before it gets too out of hand.
There is already a tentative movement to oust him as the Republican Senate Minority Leader.
McConnell certainly deserves his share of the blame, from both ends. On the one hand, he is as responsible as anyone for the gridlock in Washington. He has also contributed to the pork-barrel political culture that has run rampant through the Republican caucus since they were the majority party.
At the same time, he seems to align himself with the RINO wing of the party at the worse possible times. He did so during the debate over the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill which he helped push in the Senate-before he ultimately voted against it. He also pushed with equal intensity the recently passed Banking-Wall Street Bailout package, an action that, for a brief and unsettling period of time, almost served to end his career.
Yet, he eventually overcame the brief rise in the polls of Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford. He did this by reminding Kentucky voters that his "clout" as Senate Minority Leader insured his ability to bring hundreds of millions of dollars worth of pork to the Bluegrass State.
This affinity for pork has caused him quite a few problems with GOP standard bearer McCain, but that's not all-not by a long shot. He became McCain's most outspoken critic in the face of McCain's sponsorship of the so-called McCain-Feingold Bill, otherwise known as "Campaign Finance Reform". McConnell opposed this voraciously on First Amendment grounds. McCain also earned McConnell's ire by his association with the so-called "Gang of Seven", which was a group of moderate Republicans and Democrats meant to insure an up-and-down vote on judicial appointments by forcing an end to filibusters.
It's hard to tag McConnell as either a RINO or as a hard core social conservative. He is one of those rare hybrids who could be either one, depending on the moment. One thing that is for sure, however, is his closeness to the Bush Administration, whom he has supported in the Senate come what may. He is also married to Elaine Chou, the former Bush Secretary of Labor. His ties to the Administration run very deep, you might say.
Due to his ties to Bush, and his very public association with his policies due to his position as Senate Majority, then Minority Leader, he is lucky he is from Kentucky, one of the few states where Bush's popularity is at times as high as in the low thirties percent range.
He and McCain both won Kentucky, but McCain won by a heftier margin. He never made an appearance to speak on behalf of McConnell, even though McConnell endorsed him for President. Of course, Mccain can make the excuse that he did not have the time to make an appearance in Kentucky, which would be a deceptive argument. An endorsement by McCain would have obviously helped McConnell in Louisville, for example, where the appearance would have fed into the Indiana media market, thus helping McCain there. Or McCain could have made an appearance in Covington. McConnell needed no help in Covington, of course, but an appearance there by McCain would have helped McCain in Cincinnati, and it would have helped McConnell in Lexington.
The two men obviously dislike each other with noticeable intensity, and I have a strong feeling that, when the Senate leadership positions come up to a vote, here in less than a month, McConnell, though expected now to win re-election to his position, might end up more under the gun than one might expect.
I don't think McCain will openly oppose him. I do, however, expect one or more of McCain's Senate allies to run against McConnell. It will be somebody with a record of long association with McCain, somebody like South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, although I doubt it will be Graham who will actually oppose McConnell. Whoever it is, I have no doubt that McCain will encourage him or her in the background, and try to build support amongst his other fellow GOP Senators behind the scenes.
Like I said, it could be a real bloodbath. McConnell won't go down without a fight, and whether he wins or loses, there will be hell to pay.
The real irony is, the man most likely to hold the fractured GOP together and to keep both of the main rival factions from splitting into two rival parties in all but name could well be the same man who is, more than almost anybody else-besides John McCain, specifically-responsible for the recent electoral disaster at the polls.
One thing I am fairly certain of is, if the McCain faction takes over control of the caucus, that will be pretty much the end of the concept of the Republican Party as loyal opposition, other than to stand and make a few ineffectual speeches on tax reduction and spending cuts. The other faction is too down and out to gain much power aside from their individual single votes. They will probably not even be able to mount a successful filibuster without sacrificing their core principles to the McCain wing. The true Republican Party may be more of a minority party than most people are aware.
McConnell will probably keep his power, such as it is. He is, after all, the devil we know, and safely bound to the shackles of Washington hell. Yet, he does have the power to end the era of the McCain domination of the GOP, if he but will.
Oh No You Did-Ent
This is the new sticker MoveOn.org is offering for free. Well, one is free. Three dollars will get you five of them, shipping free. Here's the whole reason in a nutshell as to why Obama's detractors are so afraid he's a Marxist-so many of his supporters are. Just look at the logo.
"United We Progress Toward A More Perfect Union"
What the hell does that even mean? Is this the left's version of the classic "You're either with us or against us?" Well, of course it is. I think at this point they would probably be too arrogant to deny it.
The image here is so much like giant posters of Lenin and Mao you used to see hanging up in city squares in Beijing and Moscow it's scary. What do you want to bet half the people that send off for these things have Che' Guevara t-shirts-which is probably one of the few items of clothing they regularly launder?
Never mind Obama. He's almost fucking irrelevant. Or he will be once his crowd of worshipers get through making everybody with a lick of sense sick to death of hearing his name or seeing his face. I've been trying hard to find reasons to like the man, at least on a personal if not a political level, and I'm honestly trying to find reasons to believe he has the best interests of the country in mind, but I'm telling you, these people are dangerous.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
One Good Thing
I want to say a few words more on the positive side of Obama's election. Yes, there is one thing good about it, and it would be wrong of me not to show some respect to that aspect of his victory.
No, it doesn't have anything to do with how the world sees us. I could care less about that. When I see a bunch of jerkwads jumping up and down in elation because America has elected the first black president, it strains my incredulity. When is Britain or France going to elect their first black President or Prime Minister? When is Germany going to elect it's first Jewish President? For that matter, while so many people in Africa are so elated at the election of Obama, I have to wonder when every third or fourth country there is going to stop engaging in the massacre of their minority citizens. These are people that for the most part look just like them. What would they do to an actual racial minority that stood out like a sore thumb? Yeah, dance to that tune, motherfuckers.
The point is, white America can now pat itself on the back. It has proven itself, again, better than the rest of the world. Obama defeated John McCane, a conservative elderly white war hero, not by just a respectable margin, but by an electoral vote landslide, and by a large popular vote margin as well. His popular vote margin is, unless I'm mistaken, the largest since 1988. In electoral votes, McCain didn't even reach the 200 mark. He was trounced.
However, even that is insignificant to me, because, again, I don't care what the world thinks. I do though have to say, I feel good for the millions of black children in this country. They have a right to feel proud. One of their own has made it to the highest office in the land. After decades of being told by the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton that they were hated and despised by many if not most white Americans, African-Americans have witnessed white Americans deliver a resounding victory to a black candidate, and a crushing defeat to his white opponent.
We've all probably by now seen the news footage of Jesse Jackson standing among the crowds of Chicago, with tears streaming down his eyes at the news of confirmation of Obama's victory. Don't be sentimental about this image. The old bastard was probably thinking "now how am I going to explain this?" After all, he just saw his life's work evaporate in front of his eyes-the work of racial identity politics and division. The man behind the curtain is being pushed to the side. Good riddance to him and all others like him.
I want to emphasize, its the black children I feel good for, not the black adults. They've for the most part swallowed the garbage spoon fed them by Jackson and Sharpton, but now they're adults. When you become adult, you become responsible for your actions. Whatever residual racial bitterness there is, they have certainly contributed to it by following along behind the likes of Jackson, Sharpton, Wright, etc.
This election, however, offers a clean break from the vicious cycle of hatred, guilt, self-loathing, and recrimination. Black children have reason to hope, to realize that no dream within reason is beyond their grasp, regardless of the garbage their adult relatives and neighbors have taught them.
For their sake, I hope Obama doesn't let them down. That to some might sound like an unfair standard to impose on a President just because he's black. Well, it's not. I just want Obama to do what any President of any race should and can do-act with honor and integrity. Is that really that hard? Is that really too much to ask from any elected leader? Obama has an opportunity here to set a whole new standard. For the sake of so many black children who now understandably view him with pride, as an example of hope for their own dreams and aspirations, I hope he has a succesful presidency.
Still, when all is said and done, I have to admit I hope the man is defeated four years from now, regardless of how good he does. There are many reasons for this, but there is one reason that is of overriding importance.
I just don't think America can take too many Ruth Bader Ginsburg's on the Supreme Court.
No, it doesn't have anything to do with how the world sees us. I could care less about that. When I see a bunch of jerkwads jumping up and down in elation because America has elected the first black president, it strains my incredulity. When is Britain or France going to elect their first black President or Prime Minister? When is Germany going to elect it's first Jewish President? For that matter, while so many people in Africa are so elated at the election of Obama, I have to wonder when every third or fourth country there is going to stop engaging in the massacre of their minority citizens. These are people that for the most part look just like them. What would they do to an actual racial minority that stood out like a sore thumb? Yeah, dance to that tune, motherfuckers.
The point is, white America can now pat itself on the back. It has proven itself, again, better than the rest of the world. Obama defeated John McCane, a conservative elderly white war hero, not by just a respectable margin, but by an electoral vote landslide, and by a large popular vote margin as well. His popular vote margin is, unless I'm mistaken, the largest since 1988. In electoral votes, McCain didn't even reach the 200 mark. He was trounced.
However, even that is insignificant to me, because, again, I don't care what the world thinks. I do though have to say, I feel good for the millions of black children in this country. They have a right to feel proud. One of their own has made it to the highest office in the land. After decades of being told by the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton that they were hated and despised by many if not most white Americans, African-Americans have witnessed white Americans deliver a resounding victory to a black candidate, and a crushing defeat to his white opponent.
We've all probably by now seen the news footage of Jesse Jackson standing among the crowds of Chicago, with tears streaming down his eyes at the news of confirmation of Obama's victory. Don't be sentimental about this image. The old bastard was probably thinking "now how am I going to explain this?" After all, he just saw his life's work evaporate in front of his eyes-the work of racial identity politics and division. The man behind the curtain is being pushed to the side. Good riddance to him and all others like him.
I want to emphasize, its the black children I feel good for, not the black adults. They've for the most part swallowed the garbage spoon fed them by Jackson and Sharpton, but now they're adults. When you become adult, you become responsible for your actions. Whatever residual racial bitterness there is, they have certainly contributed to it by following along behind the likes of Jackson, Sharpton, Wright, etc.
This election, however, offers a clean break from the vicious cycle of hatred, guilt, self-loathing, and recrimination. Black children have reason to hope, to realize that no dream within reason is beyond their grasp, regardless of the garbage their adult relatives and neighbors have taught them.
For their sake, I hope Obama doesn't let them down. That to some might sound like an unfair standard to impose on a President just because he's black. Well, it's not. I just want Obama to do what any President of any race should and can do-act with honor and integrity. Is that really that hard? Is that really too much to ask from any elected leader? Obama has an opportunity here to set a whole new standard. For the sake of so many black children who now understandably view him with pride, as an example of hope for their own dreams and aspirations, I hope he has a succesful presidency.
Still, when all is said and done, I have to admit I hope the man is defeated four years from now, regardless of how good he does. There are many reasons for this, but there is one reason that is of overriding importance.
I just don't think America can take too many Ruth Bader Ginsburg's on the Supreme Court.
Glutton For Punishment
This picture says it all when it comes to the Democrats attitudes towards Joe Liebermann. Evidently, the form of lycanthropy from which Loebermann allegedly suffers is a relatively mild form that is easily cured. Just toss any piece of leftist liberal legislation his way and he's temporarily cured.
Still, Harry Reid might "punish" him, for his support of long-time friend John McCane for President, by removing him from his seat at the head of the Senate Committee charged with overseeing Homeland Security. That would of course be dependent on whether the Democrats end up with a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. If they do, then Liebermann might well pay for bucking the party's wishes.
Most of you will probably recall that Liebermann left the Democratic Party when he was unseated by challenger Ned Lamont in the Connecticut Democratic Senate primary in 2006. He ran against Lamont and a nominal Republican, as an Independent, and won.
Still, since Liebermann is, after all, a liberal Democrat, he chose to caucus with the Democrats.
Frankly, I don't like the guy for a variety of reasons. For one, he's too ideologically leftist, and for another, he always struck me as a mealy mouthed little opportunistic toad. Still, I can't help but feel for him here. If he ends up caucusing with the Republicans, that's fine, won't make a difference one way or another, and his vote will be the same regardless in most cases as it usually is.
Reid is mum on the subject for now, waiting to see how the recounts turn out. If the Democrats end up with just 59 seats, including Sanders from Vermont (the Senates only other Independent, who also caucuses with the Democrats) it will be fun to conjecture as to how far Reid will go to kiss Liebermann's ass, and how the left wing of the party,especially the rank-and-file left voters, will howl like rabid dogs about it.
Like I said, though, Liebermann is a little toad, so no, he doesn't need that much power, but on the other hand, I really do want to hurt some people right now. He has a golden opportunity to wreak some havoc. He should demand a hard-line stance towards Syria and Iran in exchange for voting with the Democrats on anything, and he should remind Reid that he, Joe Liebermann, can filibuster with the best of them.
That ought to be good for a few laughs.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Pagan Election Results
This poll from Witchvox courtesy of The Wild Hunt Blog is pretty much what I would have expected.
So let's see, if I attended a typical Pagan Pride Day event, then I'm going to have to wade through 1000 people to find just 106 I can stand to talk to for more than the time it takes to ask for directions. That's just great. Oh, I could do it. I like to think that like attracts like. I'll recognize them somehow. I won't say how. I'll just know. And they will know me. For one thing, we'll all be the ones with our eyes peeled for the nearest exits.
I won't change the name of this blog, but I think I will start referring to my path as something other than Pagan or Wiccan. The vast leftist majority will appreciate that, I'm sure. I just don't really have anything in common with these people and there's no use in pretending I do. I know it, and they know it.
But, it is what it is. I guess they feel they have a right to celebrate. So did Trotsky.
Will somebody kindly pass me the belladonna?
So let's see, if I attended a typical Pagan Pride Day event, then I'm going to have to wade through 1000 people to find just 106 I can stand to talk to for more than the time it takes to ask for directions. That's just great. Oh, I could do it. I like to think that like attracts like. I'll recognize them somehow. I won't say how. I'll just know. And they will know me. For one thing, we'll all be the ones with our eyes peeled for the nearest exits.
I won't change the name of this blog, but I think I will start referring to my path as something other than Pagan or Wiccan. The vast leftist majority will appreciate that, I'm sure. I just don't really have anything in common with these people and there's no use in pretending I do. I know it, and they know it.
But, it is what it is. I guess they feel they have a right to celebrate. So did Trotsky.
Will somebody kindly pass me the belladonna?
Don't Blame Me
I'll admit, I'm disappointed as hell, but I'm going to resist the urge to rant and whine about it. I'll leave that to the many people who are probably going to be sorry as hell they voted the way they did in this election, once they see the result of the lock on power of the Washington Democrats. They deserve everything they are going to get from their ill-advised actions. You think the Republicans were bad? Well, so did I, but believe me-you ain't seen nothing yet.
My prediction as of now, which is of course tentative and dependent on a lot of unknowable variables-
In 2012 the Republican nominee will be Mitt Romney. His VP nominee-current Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Will they win? That too depends on a lot of variables.
Romney's main rivals for the nomination will be Mike Huckabee, who will not do nearly as good as he did this last time around, and Charlie Crist of Florida, who just won't play well on the national stage. There are no others with the backing, influence, or with sufficient name recognition, at least not in a positive way, who will be able to stand up to Romney. Huckabee will win a few Southern states, but that's all. Romney will pick Jindal, who will bring the entirety of the South back to the Republican fold.
Romney's main appeal will be his business acumen and his economic conservative credentials. Jindal will bring aboard the social conservatives, just like Sarah Palin did this time around, only possibly even more so. After four years of Obama, social conservatives won't have a problem with Romney's Mormon religion, and what ones that do will be more than placated by the pick of Jindal. Together, they will also appeal to a broad spectrum of independent voters, and maybe a significant number of Democratic voters as well.
As for Palin, all the people who are now dreaming of a Palin candidacy are deluding themselves. She doesn't have the backing it takes to headline a national campaign. In fact, she has made too many enemies among the elites of the Republican Party. Men like George Will and others like him didn't dislike her because she was a typical country club Republican, after all.
You will of course see more of her. After she finishes her term as governor, and perhaps follows that up with a second term, you can expect to see her as Senator from Alaska, a position from which she will over time exercise considerable influence.
The way I look at it, the country's loss is Alaska's gain. Her popularity wasn't in the eighty-plus percent range because she was folksy. Had she left Alaska, the state might well have become mired once more in the petty and corrupt backroom politics that had established such a stranglehold over the state. Since it seems she will have more time there now, hopefully she can cultivate an established political culture of integrity that will be of lasting duration on the affairs of her state. That can only be to their benefit.
As for the country and the direction in which it is probably going-well, I've got more important things to think about. Just remember-I didn't do it.
My prediction as of now, which is of course tentative and dependent on a lot of unknowable variables-
In 2012 the Republican nominee will be Mitt Romney. His VP nominee-current Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. Will they win? That too depends on a lot of variables.
Romney's main rivals for the nomination will be Mike Huckabee, who will not do nearly as good as he did this last time around, and Charlie Crist of Florida, who just won't play well on the national stage. There are no others with the backing, influence, or with sufficient name recognition, at least not in a positive way, who will be able to stand up to Romney. Huckabee will win a few Southern states, but that's all. Romney will pick Jindal, who will bring the entirety of the South back to the Republican fold.
Romney's main appeal will be his business acumen and his economic conservative credentials. Jindal will bring aboard the social conservatives, just like Sarah Palin did this time around, only possibly even more so. After four years of Obama, social conservatives won't have a problem with Romney's Mormon religion, and what ones that do will be more than placated by the pick of Jindal. Together, they will also appeal to a broad spectrum of independent voters, and maybe a significant number of Democratic voters as well.
As for Palin, all the people who are now dreaming of a Palin candidacy are deluding themselves. She doesn't have the backing it takes to headline a national campaign. In fact, she has made too many enemies among the elites of the Republican Party. Men like George Will and others like him didn't dislike her because she was a typical country club Republican, after all.
You will of course see more of her. After she finishes her term as governor, and perhaps follows that up with a second term, you can expect to see her as Senator from Alaska, a position from which she will over time exercise considerable influence.
The way I look at it, the country's loss is Alaska's gain. Her popularity wasn't in the eighty-plus percent range because she was folksy. Had she left Alaska, the state might well have become mired once more in the petty and corrupt backroom politics that had established such a stranglehold over the state. Since it seems she will have more time there now, hopefully she can cultivate an established political culture of integrity that will be of lasting duration on the affairs of her state. That can only be to their benefit.
As for the country and the direction in which it is probably going-well, I've got more important things to think about. Just remember-I didn't do it.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Tarot Reading The Election
Thanks once again to Sasha Graeme at Tarot Girl for the images.
I started reading Tarot in 1994, and experimented quite frequently. One of the first spreads I did involved the potential future of the presidency of Bill Clinton. When I read it, I decided I messed up the reading, and was projecting the rumors of Clinton's alleged sexual infidelities onto the reading for his presidency. There was no way, I reasoned, that a President of the United States would ever get in so much trouble over a sexual indiscretion.
Now here we are fourteen years later, and I'm figuring, well, if I can do that good for an entire presidency, surely I can do all right for just the result of an election that takes place over the course of-hopefully-one day.
The first card is Obama, the second McCain, the third is the outcome of the election.
Unfortunately, Obama's card, the Six of Pentacles, is not showing up here, probably because it is a different format of image. Suffice it to say the Six of Pentacles foretells a man who is generously offering assistance to those in need. He has many takers, those who are in dire straights. This fits Obama's campaign promise to restore economic prosperity by a number of spending initiatives financed by increased taxes on the "wealthiest Americans", while promising tax cuts to the "Middle Class" and to businesses that create jobs in America while promising to end them to those who ship jobs overseas.
His rise in the polls in fact are predicated on the dire situation in the financial markets and its overall affect on the US and the global economy. It almost seems as if the situation came at just the right time to assure his ascension. His card was upright, which indicates that he presents himself, or tries to, in a positive manner.
As for McCain, his card, as stated earlier, is The Moon, which I drew in the reversed state.
This shows us McCain's one possible and probably lone path to success in this election. He has to successfully paint Obama's program as socialism, or at the very least, bordering on socialism. The tightening of the recent polls would suggest he has enjoyed some limited success at this tactic. His pointing out some of Obama's more unsavory associations has also helped him in this regard.
However, this holds its own dangers for McCain's campaign. For one, he has not managed to successfully remove himself from the shadow of George W. Bush, nor has he delineated enough of his own positive image. He has tried to do so, but unfortunately, a great many of the things he has said are themselves socialistic in the minds of some, which tends to negate his criticisms of Obama. He is hurt, in fact, by the very thing that once helped him with some voters. His tendency to "reach across the aisle to get things done for the American people" makes his own base somewhat suspicious of him. At the same time, independents are wary of his past support for some of the, to them, more objectionable aspects of the Bush presidency.
Therefore, McCain is between a rock and a hard place. He is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, and there is little middle ground available to him. One might well say, in fact, that the "middle ground" is precisely why he is in the mess he is in. The fact that he so openly supported the bail-out has proven to be a major irritant to many of his supporters. In fact, in the mind of many, McCain is a perfect image of the problem with America, and they see him as part and parcel with the economic woes affecting our nation. The Moon describes a period of fear and uncertainty, and that certainly describes the current state of the economy. That I drew this card for McCain in the reversed state means his election is dependent on whether he can assure voters that he is the right hand to guide the ship of state through the current economic storms as well as those that might come, as much as it is on whether he can successfully paint Obama in a negative light.
How then will it turn out? The answer is in the final card, the Three of Pentacles, which I also drew in the reversed state.
This by no means identifies the winner of the election, it simply points out the overriding force that will decide the election one way or another. More than likely, the Three of Pentacles does seem to suggest an Obama win, though this is by no means definite. There are reasons this would come about, both negative and positive. Some people, and some organizations especially, would hope to gain by an Obama presidency as far as entitlements, while others simply hope he can repair the damage to the economy and thus protect their jobs, improve their health care options, protect their retirement, their children's education, etc. In other words, if Obama wins, it will be on the strength of his economic proposals, and he will definitely be expected to deliver.
On the other hand, a McCain victory, which is by no means ruled out of the question here, would indicate that McCain's charges of socialism and the threat of higher taxes and the resultant further deteriorating effect of this on the economy might bear fruit in the final analysis.
It all boils down to the economy.
I started reading Tarot in 1994, and experimented quite frequently. One of the first spreads I did involved the potential future of the presidency of Bill Clinton. When I read it, I decided I messed up the reading, and was projecting the rumors of Clinton's alleged sexual infidelities onto the reading for his presidency. There was no way, I reasoned, that a President of the United States would ever get in so much trouble over a sexual indiscretion.
Now here we are fourteen years later, and I'm figuring, well, if I can do that good for an entire presidency, surely I can do all right for just the result of an election that takes place over the course of-hopefully-one day.
The first card is Obama, the second McCain, the third is the outcome of the election.
Unfortunately, Obama's card, the Six of Pentacles, is not showing up here, probably because it is a different format of image. Suffice it to say the Six of Pentacles foretells a man who is generously offering assistance to those in need. He has many takers, those who are in dire straights. This fits Obama's campaign promise to restore economic prosperity by a number of spending initiatives financed by increased taxes on the "wealthiest Americans", while promising tax cuts to the "Middle Class" and to businesses that create jobs in America while promising to end them to those who ship jobs overseas.
His rise in the polls in fact are predicated on the dire situation in the financial markets and its overall affect on the US and the global economy. It almost seems as if the situation came at just the right time to assure his ascension. His card was upright, which indicates that he presents himself, or tries to, in a positive manner.
As for McCain, his card, as stated earlier, is The Moon, which I drew in the reversed state.
This shows us McCain's one possible and probably lone path to success in this election. He has to successfully paint Obama's program as socialism, or at the very least, bordering on socialism. The tightening of the recent polls would suggest he has enjoyed some limited success at this tactic. His pointing out some of Obama's more unsavory associations has also helped him in this regard.
However, this holds its own dangers for McCain's campaign. For one, he has not managed to successfully remove himself from the shadow of George W. Bush, nor has he delineated enough of his own positive image. He has tried to do so, but unfortunately, a great many of the things he has said are themselves socialistic in the minds of some, which tends to negate his criticisms of Obama. He is hurt, in fact, by the very thing that once helped him with some voters. His tendency to "reach across the aisle to get things done for the American people" makes his own base somewhat suspicious of him. At the same time, independents are wary of his past support for some of the, to them, more objectionable aspects of the Bush presidency.
Therefore, McCain is between a rock and a hard place. He is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't, and there is little middle ground available to him. One might well say, in fact, that the "middle ground" is precisely why he is in the mess he is in. The fact that he so openly supported the bail-out has proven to be a major irritant to many of his supporters. In fact, in the mind of many, McCain is a perfect image of the problem with America, and they see him as part and parcel with the economic woes affecting our nation. The Moon describes a period of fear and uncertainty, and that certainly describes the current state of the economy. That I drew this card for McCain in the reversed state means his election is dependent on whether he can assure voters that he is the right hand to guide the ship of state through the current economic storms as well as those that might come, as much as it is on whether he can successfully paint Obama in a negative light.
How then will it turn out? The answer is in the final card, the Three of Pentacles, which I also drew in the reversed state.
This by no means identifies the winner of the election, it simply points out the overriding force that will decide the election one way or another. More than likely, the Three of Pentacles does seem to suggest an Obama win, though this is by no means definite. There are reasons this would come about, both negative and positive. Some people, and some organizations especially, would hope to gain by an Obama presidency as far as entitlements, while others simply hope he can repair the damage to the economy and thus protect their jobs, improve their health care options, protect their retirement, their children's education, etc. In other words, if Obama wins, it will be on the strength of his economic proposals, and he will definitely be expected to deliver.
On the other hand, a McCain victory, which is by no means ruled out of the question here, would indicate that McCain's charges of socialism and the threat of higher taxes and the resultant further deteriorating effect of this on the economy might bear fruit in the final analysis.
It all boils down to the economy.
Monday, November 03, 2008
One Bright Spot-Jack Murthafucker Might Be Gone
First he pronounced guilt on the Haditha Marines before they were ever tried, before in fact the investigation into the case was ever completed. Not just privately, mind you, he publicly, on nationwide television, pronounced them guilty.
The fact that he has consistently ladled the pork on his Western Pennsylvania House district might have been enough to get him a pass. Calling them-his own constituents-racists, well, that didn't go over too well with them.
He didn't just say there were some racists in Western Pennsylvania, mind you, he said that Western Pennsylvania "is racist".
See, if you wonder what would possess him to say something like that, you have to understand, it's not so much stupidity, as it is senility. Murtha is one of these dinosaurs who thinks a statement like that is a viable tactic. The schmuck actually thought white guilt would make them vote for Obama to prove him wrong. I guess you could call it nineteen seventies-era reverse identity politics.
I just hope the old son-of-a bitch is sent packing. Nobody likes him. The coolest thing Nancy Pelosi ever did was when she manipulated the old son-of-a bitch into supporting her for Speaker of the House in return for supporting him for House Majority Leader, and then going behind his back and supporting Steny Hoyer for the job instead. The disappointment on Murtha's face was palpable. It was like he could feel the knife twisting in his back.
Of course, he could still win, but I can always hope. He knows he's in a tough spot too. As related by Polipundit-, and also by Murtha Must Go-a blog by the father of an Iraqi War soldier who has devoted his blog to ridding the nation of this piece of raw human sewage-
Veteran Democratic Rep. John Murtha (Pa.) has sent out a last-minute plea for $1 million to save his hotly contested seat, endangered by his own remarks describing his district as racist.
In an e-mail sent to potential donors, Murtha’s campaign asked his supporters to maximize all campaign contributions.
“We need to raise another $1 million to compete,” his campaign fundraiser Susan O’Neill wrote in the e-mail obtained by The Hill. “We need money immediately.”
O’Neill blamed Republicans from outside Pennsylvania for Murtha’s problems. Polls show Murtha, running for his 18th term, ahead of his GOP opponent by just a few percentage points.
“Congressman Murtha is in a brutal reelection campaign,” O’Neill wrote. “The Swift Boaters have put up a candidate from Virginia and have raised millions of dollars against Congressman Murtha. In addition, other 527s and the [National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)] have spent millions to smear Congressman Murtha on TV, radio and in newspapers.”
Listen to how the old Murthafucker whined when he was questioned about his off-the-wall statement.
“Now you see what you’re doing? You’re getting away from the real issues of this campaign. You are getting away from the economy and health care. You are getting away from education.”
Or maybe they're just getting away from you, Murthafucker.
Hat tip-Hillbilly White Trash
The fact that he has consistently ladled the pork on his Western Pennsylvania House district might have been enough to get him a pass. Calling them-his own constituents-racists, well, that didn't go over too well with them.
He didn't just say there were some racists in Western Pennsylvania, mind you, he said that Western Pennsylvania "is racist".
See, if you wonder what would possess him to say something like that, you have to understand, it's not so much stupidity, as it is senility. Murtha is one of these dinosaurs who thinks a statement like that is a viable tactic. The schmuck actually thought white guilt would make them vote for Obama to prove him wrong. I guess you could call it nineteen seventies-era reverse identity politics.
I just hope the old son-of-a bitch is sent packing. Nobody likes him. The coolest thing Nancy Pelosi ever did was when she manipulated the old son-of-a bitch into supporting her for Speaker of the House in return for supporting him for House Majority Leader, and then going behind his back and supporting Steny Hoyer for the job instead. The disappointment on Murtha's face was palpable. It was like he could feel the knife twisting in his back.
Of course, he could still win, but I can always hope. He knows he's in a tough spot too. As related by Polipundit-, and also by Murtha Must Go-a blog by the father of an Iraqi War soldier who has devoted his blog to ridding the nation of this piece of raw human sewage-
Veteran Democratic Rep. John Murtha (Pa.) has sent out a last-minute plea for $1 million to save his hotly contested seat, endangered by his own remarks describing his district as racist.
In an e-mail sent to potential donors, Murtha’s campaign asked his supporters to maximize all campaign contributions.
“We need to raise another $1 million to compete,” his campaign fundraiser Susan O’Neill wrote in the e-mail obtained by The Hill. “We need money immediately.”
O’Neill blamed Republicans from outside Pennsylvania for Murtha’s problems. Polls show Murtha, running for his 18th term, ahead of his GOP opponent by just a few percentage points.
“Congressman Murtha is in a brutal reelection campaign,” O’Neill wrote. “The Swift Boaters have put up a candidate from Virginia and have raised millions of dollars against Congressman Murtha. In addition, other 527s and the [National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)] have spent millions to smear Congressman Murtha on TV, radio and in newspapers.”
Listen to how the old Murthafucker whined when he was questioned about his off-the-wall statement.
“Now you see what you’re doing? You’re getting away from the real issues of this campaign. You are getting away from the economy and health care. You are getting away from education.”
Or maybe they're just getting away from you, Murthafucker.
Hat tip-Hillbilly White Trash
Kentucky Looks Poised To Vote McCain, Keep McConnell
Wow, I'm feeling like such crap here over the last couple of days I don't know if I'll be able to stand to go to the polls or not. Luckily, its not an issue. McCain is going to win Kentucky handily, though I suspect by a relatively small seven percentage points, about the same level that Senator Mitch McConnell is ahead in the polls of Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford.
In fact, I think you can probably forget the idea that the Democrats are going to enjoy a fillibuster-proof majority in the Senate. That would take a total of nine pick-ups, with Liebermann and Sanders caucusing with them. Liebermann might not, by the way, and though I think he is basically a little toad, I can't say I'd blame him if he caucused with the Republicans.
My guess is that the Democrats will pick up seven, which would give them fifty-six seats. Ironically, if McCain pulls off an upset victory, they would end up with an extra Senate seat, as the Democratic Governor of Arizona would appoint his replacement.
The Democrats should pick up about twenty-four House seats, so it will be interesting to see what parts of the country they come from. It might not be that bad if it adds to the Blue Dog wing of the party.
I feel bad for Lunsford. He was a decent Commerce Secretary under Governor Patton and brought quite a few jobs to Kentucky. He's also something of a moderate, but I can't in good conscience contribute to the Democrats this year, even though McConnell is another toad who should be approached with wart removal cream. If he loses, he deserves it.
First he pushed the abominable Immigration Reform Bill, though to his credit he listened to his constituents and ended up voting against it. Lately, he promoted the Bail-out package, which is the reason that he was down in the polls to where it looked like Lunsford might pull out a victory. Bill Clinton has campaigned for him here in the last few days.
McConnell will probably hold his seat, as will a few others now in danger. I only hope that is a good thing. I know the opposite would be a disaster.
Here over the last few weeks, it looked like Lunsford was making some headway in the face of some minor McConnell missteps involving Lunsfords connection with Valor, a group of health care facilities for veterans, but mainly because of the recent financial turmoil, which Lunsford has tried to hang around his neck. Lunsford pilfered an old ad, the Hound Dog ad which McConnell used to win his first term against Democratic incumbent Walter "Dee" Huddleston in 1984. In it, a hunter with a pack of Hound DOgs are chasing McConnell, using his Senate record to point out the scent, until the dogs finally have Mitch treed.
Of course, McConnell responded with a similar ad about hunting for Lunsford's many multi-state residences and Wall Street connections, his ties to Valor and it's problems, etc.
McConnell lately came out with the old tried-and-true gun rights and Pro-Life issue. Lunsford, he claimed, failed to answer a questionnaire from the NRA, and is a supporter of unlimited abortion rights. Wham, suddenly McConnell is back ahead in the polls by about eight points.
Seriously though, when you get right down to it, I think the main thing that will save McConnell is the thing that is probably going to save at least a few other Republican incumbent's House and Senate seats. Most people, at least Republicans and most Independents, don't want to see the Democratic Party maintain an iron grip on power in Washington.
For that matter, if McCain does end up winning this election, that might be the main reason for it. All in all, this is undoubtedly going to be a year of significant Democratic Party gains. They just probably won't be quite as hefty as they would like.
In fact, I think you can probably forget the idea that the Democrats are going to enjoy a fillibuster-proof majority in the Senate. That would take a total of nine pick-ups, with Liebermann and Sanders caucusing with them. Liebermann might not, by the way, and though I think he is basically a little toad, I can't say I'd blame him if he caucused with the Republicans.
My guess is that the Democrats will pick up seven, which would give them fifty-six seats. Ironically, if McCain pulls off an upset victory, they would end up with an extra Senate seat, as the Democratic Governor of Arizona would appoint his replacement.
The Democrats should pick up about twenty-four House seats, so it will be interesting to see what parts of the country they come from. It might not be that bad if it adds to the Blue Dog wing of the party.
I feel bad for Lunsford. He was a decent Commerce Secretary under Governor Patton and brought quite a few jobs to Kentucky. He's also something of a moderate, but I can't in good conscience contribute to the Democrats this year, even though McConnell is another toad who should be approached with wart removal cream. If he loses, he deserves it.
First he pushed the abominable Immigration Reform Bill, though to his credit he listened to his constituents and ended up voting against it. Lately, he promoted the Bail-out package, which is the reason that he was down in the polls to where it looked like Lunsford might pull out a victory. Bill Clinton has campaigned for him here in the last few days.
McConnell will probably hold his seat, as will a few others now in danger. I only hope that is a good thing. I know the opposite would be a disaster.
Here over the last few weeks, it looked like Lunsford was making some headway in the face of some minor McConnell missteps involving Lunsfords connection with Valor, a group of health care facilities for veterans, but mainly because of the recent financial turmoil, which Lunsford has tried to hang around his neck. Lunsford pilfered an old ad, the Hound Dog ad which McConnell used to win his first term against Democratic incumbent Walter "Dee" Huddleston in 1984. In it, a hunter with a pack of Hound DOgs are chasing McConnell, using his Senate record to point out the scent, until the dogs finally have Mitch treed.
Of course, McConnell responded with a similar ad about hunting for Lunsford's many multi-state residences and Wall Street connections, his ties to Valor and it's problems, etc.
McConnell lately came out with the old tried-and-true gun rights and Pro-Life issue. Lunsford, he claimed, failed to answer a questionnaire from the NRA, and is a supporter of unlimited abortion rights. Wham, suddenly McConnell is back ahead in the polls by about eight points.
Seriously though, when you get right down to it, I think the main thing that will save McConnell is the thing that is probably going to save at least a few other Republican incumbent's House and Senate seats. Most people, at least Republicans and most Independents, don't want to see the Democratic Party maintain an iron grip on power in Washington.
For that matter, if McCain does end up winning this election, that might be the main reason for it. All in all, this is undoubtedly going to be a year of significant Democratic Party gains. They just probably won't be quite as hefty as they would like.
Breakthrough
Sonia Belle has an interesting post about Barak Obama's book Dreams From My Father, where she theorizes that if Obama had known he would be a candidate for national office at the time he wrote this book, he might not have written it. She makes a compelling case, and adds some quotes to back up her contention. Admittedly, it does seem strange that Barak Obama would willingly make the following admissions-
To avoid being mistaken for a sellout, I chose my friends carefully. The more politically active black students. The foreign students. The Chicanos. The Marxist professors and structural feminists and punk-rock performance poets (...) At night, in the dorms, we discussed neocolonialism, Franz Fanon, Eurocentrism, and patriarchy (...) we were resisting bourgeois society's stifling constraints. (p. 100-101)
And then there is this-
I had stumbled upon one of the best-kept secrets about black people: that most of us weren't interested in revolt, that most of us were tired of thinking about race all the time; that if we preferred to keep to ourselves it was mainly because that was the easiest way to stop thinking about it. (p. 98)
I had learned not to care (...) Pot had helped, and booze; maybe a little blow when you could afford it. (p. 93)
I disagree with her main contention. I think Obama had already by this time chosen a political career, and meant to go far, though I agree with Sonia he probably never imagined he'd get as far as he did.
He reveals himself to be the penultimate politician, but at the same time, one who might be seen as inventing a cover should some of his more radical associations come to light in the event he made strides towards gaining state-wide office, perhaps as governor or as Senator. He just had to go along to get along according to the constraints imposed on him by society, the immediate environment through which he circulated, and the culture which spawned him.
He wants to make a positive contribution, he seems to be telling us, but as a black man he has a harder burden to carry. At the same time, as an individual of mixed race, he is uniquely qualified to walk through both worlds with vision and understanding.
Obama's supporters seem to view him as someone who might do for black people in national politics what Jackie Robinson did for professional sports. If he wins, Obama might well be the Jackie Robinson of politics-but I doubt it. In fact, he might have the opposite effect.
Remember, Jackie Robinson met the standard imposed on him, a standard which was much higher than what is fair to impose on any individual. Barak Obama's presidency will probably be mixed at best. It could conceivably be a horrible term of office.
It would be a matter of obvious racism should anyone criticize or denigrate the contributions of Jackie Robinson to the game of professional baseball, or to professional sports in general.
It won't be as easy to make the case that criticisms of an Obama presidency amount to racism. There will be those who will make that case, of course, and chief among them will probably be certain media figures, not only in the entertainment world, but within the halls of journalism.
They will get their answer at the ballot box four years from now, if indeed an Obama presidency is in fact a dreary one. In the long run, however, it won't set back the prospects of all black candidates for national office-just those who wear the Democratic Party label.
Closer Than You Think
The latest IBD poll is interesting.
From the website-
John McCain is trailing presidential rival Barack Obama by just two points heading into Election Day, according to a new tracking poll released Sunday by Investors Business Daily.
Overall, McCain trails Obama by 2.1 percentage points 46.7 percent to 44.6 percent, with 8.7 percent not sure in the tracking poll released Sunday by IBD and its polling partner, the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP).
The latest numbers continue a tightening trend that shows McCain steadily gaining while Obama's support around 47 percent of respondents is holding firm.
Independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a tossup, according to the IBD pollsters. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, and moved back strongly into the lead with men. He is padding his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.
The newest poll shows that McCain has made steady gains in the West, up from 37 percent of respondents to 44 percent. He still leads Obama in the South, 50 percent to 45 percent, and he is tied in the Midwest, 45 percent to 45 percent, with 12 percent still not sure.
In terms of age group, McCain still is virtually tied with Obama with respondents in the categories between 25 years of age and 64. Some 9 percent are still undecided. He leads among voters 65 and over by 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent. Obama has a commanding lead only among the young respondents, those 18 to 24. But that group's reliability on Election Day varies tremendously.
Among party faithful, the poll shows that McCain is holding onto Republicans by an overwhelming margin � he has 89 percent locked up � and is winning now among self-described independents, 45 to 43 percent.
McCain also has a 15-point lead over Obama among voters who earn at least $75,000 a year, and now holds a 54 percent to 40 percent edge among male voters, up from a 4-point lead just several weeks ago.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent. IBD said its polling partner, TIPP, has been the most accurate pollster during the 2004 election season.
Note that the IBD poll has been the most accurate during the last two election cycles and you cans see there is definitely reason for hope among McCain supporters. Still, he has a huge task ahead of him. The following states are states McCain can't afford to lose-
Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Colorado. You might as well say that, in addition to all of these, he can not afford to lose BOTH Nevada and New Mexico, unless he picks up New Hampshire.
McCain could of course pull off an upset in Pennsylvania which would negate the loss of Virginia so long as he holds on to all the others, but that seems even more an unlikely proposition.
Based on the way things seem to be going so far, if I had to make my best prediction it would be something like
Obama- 50%
McCain-49%
Others- 1%
Those "others" might well be the key, as it depends to a large extent on who those others are. If it does stay at one percent, the Libertarian Party led by Bob Barr will undoubtedly be the main beneficiary, and his votes will come from McCain. However, don't discount the possibility of Independent candidate Ralph Nader pulling a solid one percent as a national average. This could skew the election in McCain's favor in places like Colorado, Nevada, and even Ohio and Florida. He might also poll well in Minnesota and Michigan, but probably not enough to make a difference.
Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party, as well as his polar opposite, Cynthia McKinney of the Green Party, will probably be doing good to poll .20 % between the two of them when all is said and done. Where they do best will probably likewise not make a difference.
The key of course is the undecided voters, which according to IBD is around the eight percent mark. Most pundits assume these will go eighty percent for McCain, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that. I wouldn't bet too much money on them voting at all, or not voting third party.
Pay close attention to Ohio and Virginia. These are the most likely Obama pick-ups, along with Florida. If any of these go for Obama, the election is over. I am fairly certain McCain will hold North Carolina and Missouri, and even more certain Obama will hold Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
Don't be surprised if the election isn't decided in Colorado, or possibly Nevada. Once those states are in, we'll all know the outcome. I just can't believe Montana and North Dakota will go for Obama, and I would be almost as surprised if Indiana did.
From the website-
John McCain is trailing presidential rival Barack Obama by just two points heading into Election Day, according to a new tracking poll released Sunday by Investors Business Daily.
Overall, McCain trails Obama by 2.1 percentage points 46.7 percent to 44.6 percent, with 8.7 percent not sure in the tracking poll released Sunday by IBD and its polling partner, the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP).
The latest numbers continue a tightening trend that shows McCain steadily gaining while Obama's support around 47 percent of respondents is holding firm.
Independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a tossup, according to the IBD pollsters. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, and moved back strongly into the lead with men. He is padding his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.
The newest poll shows that McCain has made steady gains in the West, up from 37 percent of respondents to 44 percent. He still leads Obama in the South, 50 percent to 45 percent, and he is tied in the Midwest, 45 percent to 45 percent, with 12 percent still not sure.
In terms of age group, McCain still is virtually tied with Obama with respondents in the categories between 25 years of age and 64. Some 9 percent are still undecided. He leads among voters 65 and over by 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent. Obama has a commanding lead only among the young respondents, those 18 to 24. But that group's reliability on Election Day varies tremendously.
Among party faithful, the poll shows that McCain is holding onto Republicans by an overwhelming margin � he has 89 percent locked up � and is winning now among self-described independents, 45 to 43 percent.
McCain also has a 15-point lead over Obama among voters who earn at least $75,000 a year, and now holds a 54 percent to 40 percent edge among male voters, up from a 4-point lead just several weeks ago.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent. IBD said its polling partner, TIPP, has been the most accurate pollster during the 2004 election season.
Note that the IBD poll has been the most accurate during the last two election cycles and you cans see there is definitely reason for hope among McCain supporters. Still, he has a huge task ahead of him. The following states are states McCain can't afford to lose-
Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Colorado. You might as well say that, in addition to all of these, he can not afford to lose BOTH Nevada and New Mexico, unless he picks up New Hampshire.
McCain could of course pull off an upset in Pennsylvania which would negate the loss of Virginia so long as he holds on to all the others, but that seems even more an unlikely proposition.
Based on the way things seem to be going so far, if I had to make my best prediction it would be something like
Obama- 50%
McCain-49%
Others- 1%
Those "others" might well be the key, as it depends to a large extent on who those others are. If it does stay at one percent, the Libertarian Party led by Bob Barr will undoubtedly be the main beneficiary, and his votes will come from McCain. However, don't discount the possibility of Independent candidate Ralph Nader pulling a solid one percent as a national average. This could skew the election in McCain's favor in places like Colorado, Nevada, and even Ohio and Florida. He might also poll well in Minnesota and Michigan, but probably not enough to make a difference.
Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party, as well as his polar opposite, Cynthia McKinney of the Green Party, will probably be doing good to poll .20 % between the two of them when all is said and done. Where they do best will probably likewise not make a difference.
The key of course is the undecided voters, which according to IBD is around the eight percent mark. Most pundits assume these will go eighty percent for McCain, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that. I wouldn't bet too much money on them voting at all, or not voting third party.
Pay close attention to Ohio and Virginia. These are the most likely Obama pick-ups, along with Florida. If any of these go for Obama, the election is over. I am fairly certain McCain will hold North Carolina and Missouri, and even more certain Obama will hold Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
Don't be surprised if the election isn't decided in Colorado, or possibly Nevada. Once those states are in, we'll all know the outcome. I just can't believe Montana and North Dakota will go for Obama, and I would be almost as surprised if Indiana did.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Everybody's Changing
Like the preceding post, this song by Keane is another one I can't seem to get enough of, and it along with this accompanying video seems right for Samhain. This song was also in an earlier post, but didn't come in until after four minutes into the video of people talking about their grief at the loss of loved ones. I thought I would include this one with just the song. It makes for a perfect ending/beginning to this Halloween/Samhain series of posts. Watch this video as you listen and note the changes that take place among the band members.
All I Want
I'm not really sure why, but this song and video by Toad The Wet Sprocket strikes me as perfect for Samhain. One of those tunes I could listen to over and over again.
Samhain Tarot Card-The Nine of Swords
Tarot Card for this day of Samhain is one that certainly seems to fit the current mood of the country, and for that matter pretty much the whole world, but especially the US.
The Nine of Swords is a card that advises against falling prey to unfounded fears. Like I said, it fits us here in the US and a few other Western nations better than it does a great lot of the rest of the world, whose fears are not so unfounded.
People in the US never seem to catch on to the fact that, in a market-based capitalist economy, there will be downs as well as ups. A bull market will often produce a bubble, which will only serve to heighten the effects of the unavoidable bear market adjustment.
Further problems have been created due to the increased amount of investors, which in all too many cases amount to people who simply don’t know how to play the market, and who were easily manipulated by unethical brokers. After so long, many of the biggest names in the banking and Wall Street brokerage firms fell prey to their own con game, fueled by petty mid-level managers looking to pad their commissions.
Over regulation was the cause of this, and yet at the same time, under-regulation due to lack of needed oversight was an equal contributor. In other words, it’s the fault of everybody involved, and now the world is paying a heavy price.
Because of this, consumer confidence is at an all-time low resulting in declining sales, further leading to decreases in the GDP.
But hey, oil prices are plummeting, and gas is back near two and a half dollars a gallon, so there is that silver lining. Furthermore, home values are plummeting, which is good for those looking to buy homes if of course you can get the loan to buy one. If you can, my advice is to do it quickly before the government manipulates the housing market and prices back up toward artificial levels again. Just be careful what you sign. If you take out a loan or a mortgage, make sure it is at a fixed rate.
All in all, this is probably the largest overall worry in the world, combined with concerns on how the coming new Administration will deal with this problem and others, whether it be Obama or McCain.
Will McCain prove adequate to handle the economy, and will he increase military involvement overseas? Will Obama usher in a new era of big government spending and bring us further over towards socialism? These are all things of concern to the opposite camps involved, and to some in both, or neither. What effects either candidate, if successful, will have on the future make-up of the Supreme Court, the likely effects on health care, the environment and global warming, jobs and the economy, national security and the war on terrorism, immigration policy, guns and gun control, Pro-Choice versus Pro-Life issues, and education-all of these comprise a witches brew of worry. For now, the economy seems the main ingredient of concern, especially the banking-Wall Street-Housing fiasco, and concerns over the long term results of the recent Bailout Bill passed largely against the wishes of the American people.
The Nine of Swords suggests that this will work itself out in time, or would if we use common sense, moderation, and patience in our approach. Otherwise, we end up deepening and extending the crisis, the usual result of acting out of fear and emotion. Unfortunately, it seems our politicians need to follow this advice more than the American people do in general.
On a personal level, try to realize that your fears for the coming year regarding how this one has ended might be greatly unfounded or exaggerated, and that even if they are not, you do yourself no good by succumbing to fear or panic. Take a deep breath and try to approach your problems rationally. Try to adopt an inner feeling of calm, no matter how difficult it might seem to attempt to do so. Once you have achieved this calm, you can begin to think things through more clearly.
Thanks to Tarot Girl for the card. Incidentally, check out her latest post regarding her new spread to help develop the five senses and the sixth sense to its greatest potential.
Samhain Power Animal-The Tortoise
The power animal of Samhain is the tortoise, and that seems to corroborate the previous Tarot reading, as inappropriate as it might seem for Samhain at first glance. The tortoise, however, does not imply that we should walk calmly towards the “death” of the economy, but instead suggests that we should accept the fact that things have profoundly changed, and make our way, slowly and yet with steady determination toward a new day. It will take some time to work our way through this mess, but with the power of the tortoise, we will get there eventually. It’s just going to take a while.
In the meantime, let’s be thankful that this shitty year is about to come to a close. There sure hasn’t been much to celebrate. I started to say the year’s political campaign is about to meet its “death”, but that would be an overstatement. Politics never dies; it just metamorphoses into a new form of bullshit. If McCain wins, his campaign will die only to be replaced by the myriads of others who will jockey to head the Republican ticket four years from now. The same in the case of Obama. Whoever wins in fact will become the head of one long, never-ending political campaign, augmented by a carnival of freaks aiming to position themselves for the 2010 mid-terms.
American politics is reincarnation in action for all the country and the world to see and at which to stare in amazement. Most people are just numb to it by now and only seem to be roused to interest during the last two months of one period of what is, after all, a never-ending and vicious political cycle.
On a personal level, you may find it hard to achieve the goals you set out for yourself in the face of the setbacks you might have experienced, but attuning with the Turtle as your power animal will give you the dogged determination, strength, and forbearance to make it slowly yet steadily toward your goal.
Learn to see the disruptions in your life not as a permanent end, but just as a bump in the road along the way. Yes, things have changed. Yes, they might be harder than what you think they should be. Yes, it might be that you have to make some painful yet necessary sacrifices.
Know that you will make it there eventually.
Click here for the Power Animals site.
Peanut Butter Candy
I guess the day calls for a candy recipe, and the only one I can think of is luckily among the easiest to make.
Peanut Butter Fudge
Ingredients
Two cups sugar
Two thirds cup evaporated milk
One cup Peanut Butter
One cup Kraft Marshmallow Cream
One teaspoon pure vanilla extract
In a large saucepan, combine sugar and evaporated milk, allow to come to a rolling boil for five minutes over medium heat, stirring constantly yet gently, not too briskly. After five minutes, remove from heat and add first the peanut butter, and then the marshmallow cream, and finally the teaspoon of vanilla, taking care to mix each ingredient thoroughly before adding the next.
Pour into a margarine a butter lined cake pan and allow to cool uncovered at room temperature until candy is firm, which usually takes no longer than an hour.
This is a variation of the popular chocolate fudge recipe that is included on every jar of Kraft Marshmallow Cream and is every bit as delicious wile not being quite so rich. However, it doesn’t make quite as much candy as the chocolate version, so if you want to make a large batch you might want to consider doubling the ingredients.
Peanut Butter Fudge
Ingredients
Two cups sugar
Two thirds cup evaporated milk
One cup Peanut Butter
One cup Kraft Marshmallow Cream
One teaspoon pure vanilla extract
In a large saucepan, combine sugar and evaporated milk, allow to come to a rolling boil for five minutes over medium heat, stirring constantly yet gently, not too briskly. After five minutes, remove from heat and add first the peanut butter, and then the marshmallow cream, and finally the teaspoon of vanilla, taking care to mix each ingredient thoroughly before adding the next.
Pour into a margarine a butter lined cake pan and allow to cool uncovered at room temperature until candy is firm, which usually takes no longer than an hour.
This is a variation of the popular chocolate fudge recipe that is included on every jar of Kraft Marshmallow Cream and is every bit as delicious wile not being quite so rich. However, it doesn’t make quite as much candy as the chocolate version, so if you want to make a large batch you might want to consider doubling the ingredients.
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