Wow, I'm feeling like such crap here over the last couple of days I don't know if I'll be able to stand to go to the polls or not. Luckily, its not an issue. McCain is going to win Kentucky handily, though I suspect by a relatively small seven percentage points, about the same level that Senator Mitch McConnell is ahead in the polls of Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford.
In fact, I think you can probably forget the idea that the Democrats are going to enjoy a fillibuster-proof majority in the Senate. That would take a total of nine pick-ups, with Liebermann and Sanders caucusing with them. Liebermann might not, by the way, and though I think he is basically a little toad, I can't say I'd blame him if he caucused with the Republicans.
My guess is that the Democrats will pick up seven, which would give them fifty-six seats. Ironically, if McCain pulls off an upset victory, they would end up with an extra Senate seat, as the Democratic Governor of Arizona would appoint his replacement.
The Democrats should pick up about twenty-four House seats, so it will be interesting to see what parts of the country they come from. It might not be that bad if it adds to the Blue Dog wing of the party.
I feel bad for Lunsford. He was a decent Commerce Secretary under Governor Patton and brought quite a few jobs to Kentucky. He's also something of a moderate, but I can't in good conscience contribute to the Democrats this year, even though McConnell is another toad who should be approached with wart removal cream. If he loses, he deserves it.
First he pushed the abominable Immigration Reform Bill, though to his credit he listened to his constituents and ended up voting against it. Lately, he promoted the Bail-out package, which is the reason that he was down in the polls to where it looked like Lunsford might pull out a victory. Bill Clinton has campaigned for him here in the last few days.
McConnell will probably hold his seat, as will a few others now in danger. I only hope that is a good thing. I know the opposite would be a disaster.
Here over the last few weeks, it looked like Lunsford was making some headway in the face of some minor McConnell missteps involving Lunsfords connection with Valor, a group of health care facilities for veterans, but mainly because of the recent financial turmoil, which Lunsford has tried to hang around his neck. Lunsford pilfered an old ad, the Hound Dog ad which McConnell used to win his first term against Democratic incumbent Walter "Dee" Huddleston in 1984. In it, a hunter with a pack of Hound DOgs are chasing McConnell, using his Senate record to point out the scent, until the dogs finally have Mitch treed.
Of course, McConnell responded with a similar ad about hunting for Lunsford's many multi-state residences and Wall Street connections, his ties to Valor and it's problems, etc.
McConnell lately came out with the old tried-and-true gun rights and Pro-Life issue. Lunsford, he claimed, failed to answer a questionnaire from the NRA, and is a supporter of unlimited abortion rights. Wham, suddenly McConnell is back ahead in the polls by about eight points.
Seriously though, when you get right down to it, I think the main thing that will save McConnell is the thing that is probably going to save at least a few other Republican incumbent's House and Senate seats. Most people, at least Republicans and most Independents, don't want to see the Democratic Party maintain an iron grip on power in Washington.
For that matter, if McCain does end up winning this election, that might be the main reason for it. All in all, this is undoubtedly going to be a year of significant Democratic Party gains. They just probably won't be quite as hefty as they would like.
