Bloodbath

Who is going to get the lion's share of the blame for the Republican defeat? Will it be McCain himself, or Sarah Palin? Could it possibly be Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, pictured above? My opinion is, McConnell might well get the ax as a means of heading off the rivalry between the McCain and Palin factions of the GOP before it gets too out of hand.

There is already a tentative movement to oust him as the Republican Senate Minority Leader.

McConnell certainly deserves his share of the blame, from both ends. On the one hand, he is as responsible as anyone for the gridlock in Washington. He has also contributed to the pork-barrel political culture that has run rampant through the Republican caucus since they were the majority party.

At the same time, he seems to align himself with the RINO wing of the party at the worse possible times. He did so during the debate over the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill which he helped push in the Senate-before he ultimately voted against it. He also pushed with equal intensity the recently passed Banking-Wall Street Bailout package, an action that, for a brief and unsettling period of time, almost served to end his career.

Yet, he eventually overcame the brief rise in the polls of Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford. He did this by reminding Kentucky voters that his "clout" as Senate Minority Leader insured his ability to bring hundreds of millions of dollars worth of pork to the Bluegrass State.

This affinity for pork has caused him quite a few problems with GOP standard bearer McCain, but that's not all-not by a long shot. He became McCain's most outspoken critic in the face of McCain's sponsorship of the so-called McCain-Feingold Bill, otherwise known as "Campaign Finance Reform". McConnell opposed this voraciously on First Amendment grounds. McCain also earned McConnell's ire by his association with the so-called "Gang of Seven", which was a group of moderate Republicans and Democrats meant to insure an up-and-down vote on judicial appointments by forcing an end to filibusters.

It's hard to tag McConnell as either a RINO or as a hard core social conservative. He is one of those rare hybrids who could be either one, depending on the moment. One thing that is for sure, however, is his closeness to the Bush Administration, whom he has supported in the Senate come what may. He is also married to Elaine Chou, the former Bush Secretary of Labor. His ties to the Administration run very deep, you might say.

Due to his ties to Bush, and his very public association with his policies due to his position as Senate Majority, then Minority Leader, he is lucky he is from Kentucky, one of the few states where Bush's popularity is at times as high as in the low thirties percent range.

He and McCain both won Kentucky, but McCain won by a heftier margin. He never made an appearance to speak on behalf of McConnell, even though McConnell endorsed him for President. Of course, Mccain can make the excuse that he did not have the time to make an appearance in Kentucky, which would be a deceptive argument. An endorsement by McCain would have obviously helped McConnell in Louisville, for example, where the appearance would have fed into the Indiana media market, thus helping McCain there. Or McCain could have made an appearance in Covington. McConnell needed no help in Covington, of course, but an appearance there by McCain would have helped McCain in Cincinnati, and it would have helped McConnell in Lexington.

The two men obviously dislike each other with noticeable intensity, and I have a strong feeling that, when the Senate leadership positions come up to a vote, here in less than a month, McConnell, though expected now to win re-election to his position, might end up more under the gun than one might expect.

I don't think McCain will openly oppose him. I do, however, expect one or more of McCain's Senate allies to run against McConnell. It will be somebody with a record of long association with McCain, somebody like South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, although I doubt it will be Graham who will actually oppose McConnell. Whoever it is, I have no doubt that McCain will encourage him or her in the background, and try to build support amongst his other fellow GOP Senators behind the scenes.

Like I said, it could be a real bloodbath. McConnell won't go down without a fight, and whether he wins or loses, there will be hell to pay.

The real irony is, the man most likely to hold the fractured GOP together and to keep both of the main rival factions from splitting into two rival parties in all but name could well be the same man who is, more than almost anybody else-besides John McCain, specifically-responsible for the recent electoral disaster at the polls.

One thing I am fairly certain of is, if the McCain faction takes over control of the caucus, that will be pretty much the end of the concept of the Republican Party as loyal opposition, other than to stand and make a few ineffectual speeches on tax reduction and spending cuts. The other faction is too down and out to gain much power aside from their individual single votes. They will probably not even be able to mount a successful filibuster without sacrificing their core principles to the McCain wing. The true Republican Party may be more of a minority party than most people are aware.

McConnell will probably keep his power, such as it is. He is, after all, the devil we know, and safely bound to the shackles of Washington hell. Yet, he does have the power to end the era of the McCain domination of the GOP, if he but will.