The latest IBD poll is interesting.
From the website-
John McCain is trailing presidential rival Barack Obama by just two points heading into Election Day, according to a new tracking poll released Sunday by Investors Business Daily.
Overall, McCain trails Obama by 2.1 percentage points 46.7 percent to 44.6 percent, with 8.7 percent not sure in the tracking poll released Sunday by IBD and its polling partner, the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP).
The latest numbers continue a tightening trend that shows McCain steadily gaining while Obama's support around 47 percent of respondents is holding firm.
Independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a tossup, according to the IBD pollsters. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, and moved back strongly into the lead with men. He is padding his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.
The newest poll shows that McCain has made steady gains in the West, up from 37 percent of respondents to 44 percent. He still leads Obama in the South, 50 percent to 45 percent, and he is tied in the Midwest, 45 percent to 45 percent, with 12 percent still not sure.
In terms of age group, McCain still is virtually tied with Obama with respondents in the categories between 25 years of age and 64. Some 9 percent are still undecided. He leads among voters 65 and over by 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent. Obama has a commanding lead only among the young respondents, those 18 to 24. But that group's reliability on Election Day varies tremendously.
Among party faithful, the poll shows that McCain is holding onto Republicans by an overwhelming margin � he has 89 percent locked up � and is winning now among self-described independents, 45 to 43 percent.
McCain also has a 15-point lead over Obama among voters who earn at least $75,000 a year, and now holds a 54 percent to 40 percent edge among male voters, up from a 4-point lead just several weeks ago.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percent. IBD said its polling partner, TIPP, has been the most accurate pollster during the 2004 election season.
Note that the IBD poll has been the most accurate during the last two election cycles and you cans see there is definitely reason for hope among McCain supporters. Still, he has a huge task ahead of him. The following states are states McCain can't afford to lose-
Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Colorado. You might as well say that, in addition to all of these, he can not afford to lose BOTH Nevada and New Mexico, unless he picks up New Hampshire.
McCain could of course pull off an upset in Pennsylvania which would negate the loss of Virginia so long as he holds on to all the others, but that seems even more an unlikely proposition.
Based on the way things seem to be going so far, if I had to make my best prediction it would be something like
Obama- 50%
McCain-49%
Others- 1%
Those "others" might well be the key, as it depends to a large extent on who those others are. If it does stay at one percent, the Libertarian Party led by Bob Barr will undoubtedly be the main beneficiary, and his votes will come from McCain. However, don't discount the possibility of Independent candidate Ralph Nader pulling a solid one percent as a national average. This could skew the election in McCain's favor in places like Colorado, Nevada, and even Ohio and Florida. He might also poll well in Minnesota and Michigan, but probably not enough to make a difference.
Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party, as well as his polar opposite, Cynthia McKinney of the Green Party, will probably be doing good to poll .20 % between the two of them when all is said and done. Where they do best will probably likewise not make a difference.
The key of course is the undecided voters, which according to IBD is around the eight percent mark. Most pundits assume these will go eighty percent for McCain, but I wouldn't bet the farm on that. I wouldn't bet too much money on them voting at all, or not voting third party.
Pay close attention to Ohio and Virginia. These are the most likely Obama pick-ups, along with Florida. If any of these go for Obama, the election is over. I am fairly certain McCain will hold North Carolina and Missouri, and even more certain Obama will hold Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
Don't be surprised if the election isn't decided in Colorado, or possibly Nevada. Once those states are in, we'll all know the outcome. I just can't believe Montana and North Dakota will go for Obama, and I would be almost as surprised if Indiana did.
