I fully expect George W. Bush in his last months in office to follow in his father’s footsteps regarding the nation of Somalia, with an eye to cleaning up the mess the elder Bush set up during his remaining weeks in office, for Clinton to leave behind during his first term. Bush probably feels that now he has a dependable ally in the region in the form of the nation of Ethiopia.
From the Neocon perspective, such an involvement would be justified. If Somalia could be placated, and pacified, it would provide a strategic harbor in the Red Sea, just a matter of a relative few nautical miles from the vast Arabian desert of the Saudi peninsula. It would insure relative tranquility for shipping in the area, which lately has become prone to provocations by Somali pirates (though this has eased somewhat lately due to increased US naval patrols).
Of course, the major problem is it would be next to impossible to pacify Somalia without engaging in an offensive campaign that would insure heavy civilian casualties. That of course would draw the ire of the UN, and would inflame the region. Therefore, it looks like the border war between Ethiopia and Eritrea is otherwise destined to go on for an extended period, with the Somalis taking advantage of the hostilities in order to stage their own incursions. We can provide aid and logistical support to the Ethiopians, but unfortunately, Somalia is a nation without a central government of which to speak. The only true hope at this stage for the nation to establish such a centralized governing body would be by the imposition by clerics of sharia law, which in fact is what is now in the process of transpiring. If that occurs, there is likely to be even less chance for negotiations.
For the time being, the clerics control the news that both goes into and out of the country. They recently forcibly closed a radio station in the north of the country. Meanwhile, since the aforementioned piracy has decreased in prospects for success and profitability, a series of kidnappings have occurred involving foreign aid workers. One such incident, involving staff members of the group Doctors Without Borders, ended with the victim’s release only after lengthy periods of negotiations.
Somalia is a perfect example of what happens when anarchy prevails. It results in a power vacuum, which eventually will be filled by one force or another, or in protracted power struggles by groups competing to fill the void. All the Ethiopians can hope to do is contain the spread of the chaos. Neither they nor the US can hope to enforce order.
Unfortunately, that might not prevent some from making what would amount to a foolhardy attempt-possibly based on the naive idea that we need to “get it right this time.” Well, the American people will not stand for it this time. The only way they will ever again sanction such an adventure is if leftist notions of insuring minimum civilian casualties, no matter the overall costs, are completely scrapped. In today’s world that is never going to happen.
