There has been an “Awakening” in Anbar province of Iraq, amongst Arab Sunni tribes. They have cast their lot-for now-with the US forces instead of Al-Queda in Iraq. To put it bluntly, we have bought off a good many of the tribal leaders, who were ready to turn on Al-Queda due to the latter’s over-the-top tactics against their own Sunni brethren. All of this, in addition to “The Surge” has led to a quieting and lessening of violence in the province, and in Iraq as a whole. True, there is still violence, but in retrospect, things have gotten much better. Many credit the resurgence of the candidacy of Senator John McCain on this fact, as McCain’s support for the Administration’s Iraq policy, including the Surge, to many now seems prescient.
That is not to say the problem is well on its way to a resolution. In fact, the current strategy is a gamble at best. There are valid concerns that, over time, the new friends of convenience we now have will become determined foes of the yet fragile government we have encouraged and supported. It is almost a sure bet. The government after all is a Shiite dominated entity that by most accounts is corrupt and incompetent, and has not been eager and willing to share power with the minority parties. Over time, the Sunnis are going to expect more than vague guarantees of religious and political freedom. They are going to demand some degree at least of power and influence over their own regions.
The major sticking point to this, of course, will be what it always was-oil wealth. The Sunnis have none. It is an overextension of their legitimate rights to suppose they should have a greater percentage than what they actually possess. One way around this would be the simple act of investing a percentage of oil revenues in infrastructure in the region, and in health care and education. After all, as a part of the country, they do have a right to that much, and it would be a worthwhile investment in terms of insuring prosperity, security, and stability, to say nothing of encouraging economic initiative and development.
After all, even the oil of Iraq is not going to last forever. By the time it is gone, it would be good that in the meantime something might arise to insure continued prosperity for the nation. Something like-oh, maybe a fucking civilized society, perhaps.
