Oil, as always, is going to be an important factor and a vital aspect of economic vitality and national security concerns. The US is running out at a relatively fast clip, though there is yet probably enough to do for a few decades before we really feel the pinch in our domestic output. At the same time, we have vast areas of unexplored resources. I am only partially talking about Anwar. That would be an important source, but mainly, I am referring to the Florida coast. It is probably a good thing that development has stalled in this region, and for that matter in Anwar. Unfortunately, it is inevitable that all of these areas will eventually be exploited. They will eventually have to be. For the time being, the oil companies are more than happy to hold off on development. When oil tops one hundred dollars a barrel on a consistent basis, you will hear ever more demands to do so. The longer the wait, the more the profit margin increases when, not if, that time finally arrives.
Hopefully, by then oil will have become a supplementary form of our energy needs, though still the vital one it will always be, until such time as the last known gallon is finally extracted. There is truly no need for alarm when it comes to drilling for oil offshore. Environmental concerns are slight, if not petty. The North Sea has been exploited for more than three decades now, with little incident of environmental damage, or danger.
It should be a simple matter to drill for oil in an environmentally safe way, both in Anwar and in the Gulf, where the major cause for concern is the abundance of hurricane force winds. This is also manageable. Of course, this subject will be a topic for debate during the next election, especially with the voters of Florida, which once again will be a major battleground state.
Environmentalists of course will balk at such proposals and demand adherence to the stance of former Governor Jeb Bush. Whatever course it takes, it could well and even likely be the deciding factor in the Presidential race, at least in Florida, which could be the ultimate deciding factor for the nation at large.
Both parties could find themselves in a real bind. Republicans will be encouraged by their big business supporters and contributors to support exploration and drilling. Democrats will find themselves under equal pressure to oppose such proposals. It will be up to the voters in Florida, however, to make the decision. They will do so to at least some degree based on this factor.
The energy situation at the time, especially the price of gas and home heating fuel, might make it especially difficult for the Democrats to rationalize their position, and it could cause repercussions in other areas far removed from Florida as well. If prices are high, as I look for them to be, the people are not going to be impressed by arguments for energy independence and investment in alternative energy sources that will deliver no short-term relief, which in fact will not prove their viability for years into the future, provided they are ever implemented to begin with. That too, by the way, is a problematic prospect, and far from certain at this stage. Some will doubtless accuse the energy sector of manipulating prices in order to influence the election. Most will view this as an absurd charge, however.
At the same time, it is impossible to predict the likely outcome. Anger at the companies could well produce a backlash that draws Democratic voters to the polls, regardless of perception or lack of same regarding energy sector shenanigans. A Democratic voter need not vote based on belief in conspiracy theories. All that is required is a hope for change in direction regarding energy policy.
So will the voters demand short-term relief, or long-term change, or perhaps some rational combination of both? The candidate who can believably articulate such a promise, in a way that inspires trust, is the one that might well be positioned to win the election. It depends on two factors-one, whether such a candidate exists within one of the two major parties, and two, whether one exists at all.
They say that all politics is local. Well, you do not get much more “local” than your gas gauge and thermostat. For the time being, however, it will be extremely interesting to see the results of the up-and-coming Florida primary election, and how much of a factor this issue is at this early date.
