I never bothered to endorse a candidate in the Kentucky Senate primary, for a couple of reasons. One, such endorsements from such small-time, relatively obscure blogs as mine read like the height of hubris. But mainly, I wasn't sure who I preferred from a purely tactical standpoint, or for that matter as a matter of policy preference. By and large, I prefer Paul, if I'd somehow felt that I absolutely had to express a preference. Yet, had Greyson won the primary, I would have gladly supported him.
But that's all tea over the bridge now. Rand Paul has won, by a significant landslide. As of this post, I had yet to read as to the winner of the Democratic primary, but I suspect it is going to be Attorney General Jack Conway over Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo.
This is no surprise. Conway is the preferred choice, it would seem, at least by certain members the press, who went out of their way in very obvious fashion to try to derail Mongiardo's candidacy by referring to the campaign as a contest of personalities between two candidates with very little difference in substance.
Yet, those differences were significant. Mongiardo is against the Health Care Bill. He is against Cap And Trade. He is in favor of clean coal technology. Those issues alone constitute a wide gulf between the two candidates, even though Mongiardo in every other sense is as left-of-center to outright liberal as Conway. Yet, those significant differences in the two might well have been enough to spell the difference to the more conservative Kentucky Democratic voters to the point it may have limited Conways wins to the Lexington to Louisville corridor. The onus was on Mongiardo and his supporters to insure that those differences were spelled out, but he waited too long. On top of that he might have suffered from the perception that he was the most progressive of the two, as he was the first major Kentucky politician-and in fact was one of the few-to support Barak Obama in the presidential primaries over Hillary Clinton
If I am right, and Conway is the victor, the Kentucky Press might have done their cause a disservice. Conway, as the most ostensibly liberal candidate of the two in a state that tends to vote Republican in national elections (although the state is predominantly Democrat), might well be the weaker candidate in the fall against Rand Paul, who I must say might well be the weaker of the two candidates between he and Trey Greyson.
It all boils down to the Independents of Kentucky, as always, as well as conservative Democrats. My feeling is they are the ones who might have trended towards Mongiardo, while I have my doubts they would do the same for Conway. Had Greyson won, I could easily predict he would be the next Kentucky Senator, especially against Conway. But Rand Paul, despite his margin of victory-which he certainly owes to Sarah Palin and, especially, the Tea Party movement-carries some baggage that might not play as well in the general election, and he is going to be a huge target from forces outside the state determined to put the Senate seat currently held by the retiring Jim Bunning in the hands of Democrats.
It might be a mistake for them to complain about Paul's national security and foreign policy positions (to say nothing of hypocritical), as according to Paul the greatest national security threat comes from the southern border and illegal immigration-which should be seen as stating an obvious fact. Instead, it will be used as an example of Paul's "unrealistic" global views and of his "isolationist" tendencies.
Kentuckians for the most part will probably not agree with Paul on stated position that the US should not be the policeman of the world and that we need to disentangle ourselves from global politics to the extent that we have become so ensnared. However, this is highly unlikely to result in greater traction for the Democratic candidate. What will hurt Paul with Kentucky voters is his stand against such monoliths as the Department of Agriculture and, especially, farm subsidies.
I should note here that I am in disagreement with Paul on this issue myself, as I am a supporter of farm subsidies for reasons of economic security, though I think the program could be run much more fairly and efficiently than it has been in the past. On the other hand, this is a federal program we are talking about, so I should probably shoot myself for expecting anything that would nearly approach a level of acceptable competence and integrity.
The problem with farmers could probably be solved by placing a moratorium on taxes on family farms worth less than four million dollars and on companies that sell farm equipment, and by ending the progressive nightmare that is the Inheritance Tax (death tax), so in reality me and Paul are not so much divided as we are at differing levels of acceptance of what is practical and what is not.
There are other things, to be sure, but for the most part, Kentucky voters have a big choice to make. Do they want to support a flawed Republican with strong libertarian tendencies? Or, do they want to vote in a Democrat who will be a rubber-stamp for the Democratic Congress and for Barak Obama?
At the end of the day, I am hoping they will support Paul, over either Conway or Mongiardo, either one of who would be a consistently liberal vote for the Democratic Party agenda, though this is most certainly and especially true of Conway.
Mitch McConnell, the senior Senator from Kentucky and the Senate Minority leader, just got a huge smackdown with the election of Paul over his preferred candidate, Secretary of State Greyson. However, he has vowed to support Paul in the general election, as has the GOP in general. I hope they stick to that vow, but I also hope that Paul sticks to his principles and doesn't allow himself to be co-opted by McConnell's Washington inside-the-beltway crowd, who can be a very corrupting influence.
All the same, Paul if he wins will probably have to moderate some of his stands, if he is going to be a successful Senator. Unfortunately, the sausage making that is American politics involves bringing some of that pork back home. Paul should come to realize that this is just bringing tax dollars back to where they belong, in however unfair and flawed a manner, and work towards making sure any such pork is worthwhile, necessary, and serves a general greater purpose for the citizens of the state, and is not just a means to funnel money into the pockets of public officials and political hacks.
It is impossible for anyone, no matter how well-intentioned, to enter politics and not end up stained to some degree.
