Whatever one might choose to think about the Council On Foreign Relations it is worth your time to read this article from their website and ponder the consequences of the recent attack on a South Korean naval vessel by North Korea that resulted in the deaths of 46 South Korean Navy personnel. Although this happened two months ago, around March 26th, the news is just starting to get out following an international investigation that concluded the North did indeed fire a torpedo that destroyed the South Korean vessel, though it did not score a direct hit. Instead, it exploded under the ship, releasing gas and air pockets that broke the shit up when it hit. Remnants of the torpedo were, according to the report, of North Korean manufacture.
That leaves us to ponder as to why this happened, and the Council has concluded that it likely has something to do with the coming succession. The implication is that this is a way for Kim Jung Il's youngest son and chosen successor to make his bones, in a manner of speaking. It's a time honored tradition in North Korean government circles, it would seem, one by which Kim was himself initiated in the ranks of North Korean elite government society when he was chosen to replace his own father, Kim Il Sung. In his case it resulted in an explosion on a jet which resulted in the deaths of all on board the craft, as well as the murder by North Korean terrorists of a South Korean delegation to Burma.
There are other analysis that goes beyond the succession angle. Mother Jones links to an article that lays the blame on the South and its election of a conservative government that has sought to distance itself from the liberalization of relations attempted by previous South Korean governments over the previous two decades. They also wonder if this is more of a threat by a desperate North, or a way for Kim to assert his toughness in the face of recently past humiliations.
Interestingly, one of the comments at the Mother Jones article gives a unique perspective, from a Korean point of view, regarding the coming succession, that may be more revealing than any of the expert analysis thus far, from "Bub" in South Korea.
I live in Seoul. Some points:
I don't necessarily think Kim Jung Il pulled the trigger. Now that its been pulled he has to deal with it.
In regard to succession: Korea is the first monarchical communist state. There's a reason for that. In general, Koreans don't trust people out side their family. In general, family members have to follow a code of conduct, established by confucianism-Korean Style, that outsiders don't have to respect. In regard to North Korea, that means Kim Jung-Il has to worry about sharks circling as his health declines. Therefore he has to select a family member to succeed him. In Korea, no family member would ever hurt him, but people outside his kin can do anything they want. So succession planning is a big deal. Note that Kim chose the child with the least developed conscience to succeed him. He can kill anyone he wants, just not his father.
Summer time can be the worst time for peasantry in Korea. The rice harvest is in the fall, and by now rice stocks are low. The sinking may have been a pre-emptive attempt to get some more attention, so that N. Korea has talks underway by July or August when the population is most desperate, and therefore in less fear of the regime's power, all to negotiate for more aid.
As always, Korean bargaining likes to start out at the extremes, to remind people where things can go and that they aren't afraid to go there.
Just some thoughts.
There are other thoughts elsewhere, by a group of dissident North Korean computer experts, who claim that Kim Jung Il has ordered his military to prepare for war in response to the South's reaction by suspending trade with the North. All the same, Kim denies North Korea's involvement in the attack.
Thus far, little of this has been broached in the mainstream press, but you have to wonder how Obama and the Democratic Congress would react to open hostilities between North and South Korea. It wouldn't take much to draw us right back into the middle of a second Korean War, since we still have troops stationed at the border of the two countries. There may be little they can do to avoid being caught up in it, other than withdrawing our troops-or using the threat of doing so as an inducement to the South to try to reach an accord all the while talking tough with the North in public, but with little chance of making any kind of breakthrough in reality.
China will be little to no help. They do have mining interests in North Korea as well as security concerns, but also they conduct a large, flourishing trade with South Korea-something like one hundred times more than the trade they conduct with the North. Moreover, they fear and loathe the prospect of North Korean refugees. They have every reason in the world to privately harangue the North, but if they are doing so, it doesn't seem to be working. In effect, the North knows they have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. China will never cut them loose, and that would seem to be the presumptive wisdom in the halls of Pyongyang. As such, the US is stymied as ever in the region, and the North Korean's have no fear of Obama at any rate.
This is a case study in why most of the time, sanctions don't work and are more to the point counter-productive. While the common person suffers due to them, the people in power continue to live in luxury. Obama will not be an influence here, he will probably be what any of us are-just another spectator. This blog post will have as much influence on Kim Jung Il as our so-called President will at getting the North to relent from its current course. Otherwise, Obama and Congress should simply agree to ease sanctions and hope for the best.
And really, at this point, we might as well go along with that. We might as well take our troops out of there while we're at it. What good is it to have soldiers stationed anywhere if they are never going to be used for anything but set pieces. Simply arm the South and let them do as they will. They have been threatened now with everything from war, to nuclear attack, on down to massive flooding by destruction of North Korean dams. Such a move unfortunately might well result in China not only swarming into North Korea, but eventually the South as well. And don't forget, Japan is also a potential target of North Korea's lunacy.
Its only a matter of time before there is either a major war resulting in massive casualties and destruction, or a resumption in trade with the potential eventually for normalization of relations. But that would be a hard slog, and no one has the will to go there. It would correctly be seen as a reward for bad behavior.
I'm afraid the only other option then is to just take out the whole regime. Blow their infrastructure to kingdom come and just keep pounding them directly at their power centers until the people rise up and join in with the South, or until the Chinese beg us to stop and agree to take on the responsibility of running the country. One things for sure, the last thing China wants is for what should be the ultimate goal-unification of Korea under a democratic republican government with a capitalist economy. That is the kind of scenario that keeps Chinese leaders up at night, and it is why the status quo remains as is, and probably will for some time to come.
