Now that its come out that Obama, the State Department, and the international AFL-CIO are all largely responsible-granted, allegedly, for now-for the Middle East unrest that has led to violent demonstrations in Cairo and Alexandria, Egypt, and threatens to spread even to Syria, what happens from here? Is this some kind of ideological mutation that has metastasized? If so, what is the end game? Obviously, if Mubarak leaves Egypt in the next few days, as Obama seems to want, chaos will reign supreme, making it that much easier for the Nuslim Brotherhood to assume power. After all, they are the only ones, except for the military (and of course Mubarak's government) with the infrastructure, resources, and the will to stand up what would pass for a government. In the urge for stability in the days following Mubarak's premature ouster, the people might turn to them in large enough numbers to give them power. From there on, any election, despite any international monitoring, would be as much a sideshow as the recent rigged elections held by Mubarak.
It's hard to see how this benefits the US, but if this is true, what it suggests to me, is that the Obama Administration has decided the only way to achieve peace and stability in the region long-term is by being on the right side of history and to be perceived as helping it along as much as possible.
As for Israel, its easy to read the Administrations aims in that regard. They think that if there is a region wide upheaval that empowers "the people", and this is spearheaded or at least largely influenced by Islamist factions, the Israeli state would have no choice but to adopt what the administration feels is a more "reasonable" posture. Remember, to their way of thinking, in progressive internationalist terms, the problem is a perceived lack of opportunity for the Arab citizens of Gaza and the West Bank, who yearn collectively for nothing more than political freedom and economic opportunity. Once they have achieved these aims, eventually the strife will end, and Jews and Arabs will live together in peace. More or less.
But first, the Jews have to grant at least a limited right of return, remove all barriers to free and reasonable travel throughout the country, and finally, withdraw completely to pre-1967 borders. And of course, work out some sort of solution regarding Jerusalem, or at least East Jerusalem.
It will never happen though, in my opinion, and this is why this is such a dangerous, incredibly short-sighted game. This is eventually going to result in yet another full-scale Intifada, eventually, and it will likely culminate in the loss of more lives, mostly Palestinian, in a shorter amount of time, than at any time of recent history. It is not unreasonable to assume the casualties could result in the hundreds of thousands, and the million mark, while probably unlikely, is by no means impossible.
The key is the Egyptian military. They know they are no match for the Israelis, even on their best days. The annual aid the Egyptian military receives from us is for defensive purposes. If they tried to man an offensive operation against the Israelis, they would get their clocks cleaned, and they know that. So unless an Egyptian Napoleon arises from the rubble and there is support from China or the EU, its probably not going to happen. Besides, they don't want to lose their US support, and they understand full well that Obama, even if he wanted to, would be unable to justify such continued support in the face of any aggressive actions.
Therefore, the most likely targets of Israeli wrath, beyond the Palestinian people and especially Hamas, would be Syria, Lebanon, and by extension, possibly even Iran, because that's the real key to instability in the region anyway. Iran has funded Hzbollah, and is also a major supporter of Hamas, as well as the Muslim Brotherhood.
Right now the Israelis have been relatively restrained in their reaction to recent events. But they're watching, and waiting. And if worse comes to worse, they aren't going to take anything lying down.
And then there's the oil situation.
And oh yeah, China, which is an economic partner of Sudan-which is also facing the same kind of unrest as seen in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, and now, possibly Jordan.
Mark the coming days carefully, because you could be viewing the beginnings of a third world war. And if it turns out like I'm afraid it will, you might also start to hear the beginning stirrings of talk of impeachment, and it might be at a bipartisan level at that.
For now, watch Mohamed El-Baredei. He could well be the key to all this. If I'm right, this is something that's going to reach all the way into the corridors of the UN.
So what's Obama thinking? Obviously, he's not thinking of helping a legitimate, stable government to emerge, because if he was, he would accede to Mubarak's stated aims to remain in power until September, and from there to peacefully transition to a more acceptable, more democratic government. Because everybody knows that such a transition, while it would have to allow for some participation by the Muslim Brotherhood, would not on the face of it allow for the kind of chaos that would make their ascension to total power highly probable, if not a definite certainty.
And that's what makes this whole thing so potentially explosive. Even if one chose not to trust in the sincerity of Mubarak, steps could be taken to assure that he kept to the September time-table, and a stable government was set up at the end of that period. That Obama and the administration, as well as the ACLU and probably a cabal within the UN seems to be working more hand in hand with the Muslim Brotherhood (and by extension Iran), bodes no good at all.
