I think we can rule out Democrat Mayor of Sitka Scott MacAdams as anything other than a spoiler here, but the question is, which of the two candidates might he help enable to be victorious? Judging by the card I drew, the Sixth of Wands reversed, which I see here as indicative of a Pyrrhic victory of sorts, I am very much afraid Murkowski is going to be successful in her write-in bid against GOP nominee Joe Miller. That is going to spell trouble down the road, if true, because Murkowski might not be above siding with the Senate Democrats, or even caucusing with them if push comes to shove. And she will be doing plenty of pushing and shoving if the Tea Party becomes too influential.
She is probably already enraged at Alaska Republican voters for denying her, albeit by a very slim margin of votes, the nomination to which she obviously believes she is entitled, as though it were her birthright. She will almost assuredly be more amenable to crossing party lines if it comes down to any kind of showdown with the Tea-Party. Of course, the Tea-Party will be nowhere near as much of a factor in the Senate as they will in the House of Representatives. Still, Murkowski will play the centrist to the hilt. I have every reason to believe enough Democrats will vote for her in this election to put her over the top, and by playing the centrist moderate she might even feel safe enough to cross that aisle for good, if the GOP goes in a direction she does not like over the course of the next couple of years.
Of course, there's another way to interpret this card. Joe Miller could well win, only to find himself viewed as an outsider by his own party, which has as of now pulled all efforts on his behalf. I have no doubt this is due to the influence of Murkowski, whom the party hierarchy would doubtless prefer had won the nomination to begin with. In fact, Miller himself, fearing they were secretly supporting Murkowski during the primary, warned them to stay out of Alaska during the final vote tally. He was sure they were going to try to help her steal the election.
Obviously, this is not a good way to start out, and either way it turns out its going to be a mess. But whoever wins, its going to result in a fractious, divided party in Alaska, the opening battle in the war between the Palin and Murkowski factions for control of Alaska, with all of its vast resources and potential. Seen in this context, Miller becomes more of a pawn than a king. But a pawn is only a pawn until he achieves a position of power. Then the pawn actually has a voice, and becomes more of an equal partner than a junior associate. The Murkowski brand could end up in trouble at the stage of the game.
And when you stop to think about it, its not entirely beyond the realm of possibility that MacAdams could pull off an upset. It depends on-
1. How many Democrats turn out to vote for him, versus how many vote for Murkowski in order to better derail Miller and the Tea Party. Or, conversely, how many Democrats vote for Miller just to get rid of Murkowski, for whom they have no love either. There is also the question as to how many Democrats will bother to vote at all.
2. Seeing as to how Republicans are about evenly split between Miller and Murkowski, which one get their supporters to the polls. Miller's supporters are devoted. But the Murkowski machine is not to be underestimated.
Whoever emerges from the pile victorious will do so battered, bloodied, and bruised.
