It looks like there is a big split in the military wing of the Republican Party, and it might result in the end of Republican domination of the military. We should have seen that coming a long time ago. People generally make a big mistake when they refer to the military wing of the party as “foreign policy conservatives”. This is actually more of a contradiction in terms than the old joke about “military intelligence”, maybe on a par with “conservative Democrat”. Like it or not, if you want to find a true foreign policy conservative, you are required to venture into Patrick Buchanan territory. I have, and intend to stay there.
Unfortunately, this sector of American politics is as welcome in American political life as the KKK at an Obama rally. If you adhere to the principles of true foreign policy conservatism, the naysayers immediately tar you with the brush of isolationism. I prefer another, more accurate label-Washingtonian.
Be that as it may, when the internationalists took over the Department of Defense, sometime during the Truman presidency, they grew roots which have grown so deep it will be probably impossible to dislodge them, at least in the short term. The closest anybody has come to venturing into realization of the reality of the attitude of entitlement that has permeated the military-industrial complex was Dwight D. Eisenhower, when he gave his farewell address at the end of his second term. Ironically, liberal Democrats of the sixties and seventies were much more conservative in economic terms regarding military spending than their conservative Republican opponents. Of course, this was chiefly because they had other more urgent spending priorities of their own.
Both parties are unfortunately internationalist. Both parties have experienced divisions in their foreign policy wings, one made up of what we usually call hawks, which tend to dominate the Republicans, and the doves, which tend to dominate the Democrats, in both cases in terms of foreign policy and military affairs.
Now, Colin Powell’s endorsement of Barak Obama has signaled a potential shift along the fragile fault line of American international affairs that could result in a massive earthquake, one that goes beyond the simplistic view that Powell’s support for Obama is based solely on race.
Race is of course a part of it. Just as important as race is the fact that both men are outsiders in regards to their race. They are both a son of immigrants, Powell’s parents having emigrated from the Caribbean. As for their connections to slavery, no word yet on whether any of Powell’s white ancestors, if he had any, were slave owners. There will of course be the inevitable backlash among those who resent the accusation that their refusal to support Obama is racist. It is all too tempting to point out that Obama’s support amongst blacks is of course race based.
There is actually no way of resolving this to anyone’s satisfaction. I might point out, for example, that I would gladly vote for a conservative black candidate over a liberal white one, but then of course you will hear something along the lines, “oh sure you would vote for that god damn Uncle Tom over a decent white man or woman that wants to help black people.”
The obvious slur aside, this is in fact getting closer to the root of the problem. It is a matter of ideology, and I am reasonably convinced this is the case with Colin Powell. Powell has been a fixture in Washington for decades and began his official career under the Carter Administration. A vocal supporter of Affirmative Action, he is a known moderate, more left than right of center on economic and social issues and, of course, he is an internationalist.
However, so in fact were most of the foreign policy experts and officials of preceding Republican administrations, beginning with Nixon, and on through Ford, Reagan, and Bush I. The only difference with Reagan was a determination to go beyond mere containment of the old Soviet Union. He openly sought its destruction, and succeeded beyond his or anyone else’s wildest dreams.
So where did the split come in, and how did it come about? After all, true foreign policy conservatives have been as rare in Washington inner circles and official decision-making processes as John Birch Society members in a multi-cultural think-tank.
Remember, however, how I said that there have always been factions in both parties? The hawks controlled the Republican foreign policy wing while the doves came to control the Democratic foreign policy wing. Still, both parties had stalwart members of both sides of the equation. It was the Democratic Party hawks who bolted and went to the Republican side and began to influence policy for the first time during the George Bush II Administration, where they became known as Neo-cons.
Much has been made, by some of their detractors, of their domination by American Jews and Zionist Israeli supporters. As sure as night follows day, this has culminated in a charge of anti-Semitism thrown at anyone who disagrees with, opposes, or otherwise disparages Neo-con policies, which is a bit of nonsense engaged in even by some otherwise intelligent, reasonable, and thoughtful people (you know who you are).
The fact remains, it is Neo-con policies which has resulted in the shift and possibly, maybe even probably, realignment of military party loyalties. The Democratic Party knows they can only go so far in reducing military spending, even in those areas where restraint is appropriate. It is too easy to tar them with the brush of anti-Americanism, and the Republicans have used that tactic to great effect. The Democratic Party has learned from this and will probably use at least some caution, at least at the outset of the likely on-coming new Democratic Party dominated Washington power structure.
The great irony is that the debacle in Bush Administration foreign policy that has resulted in widespread dissatisfaction with the party, even among party regulars and the rank-and-file, owes its origins to the same Kennedyesque foreign policy philosophies and adventures that brought us the Bay of Pigs, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and Vietnam. It is the same kind of foreign policy blunders under a different banner-the Republican label.
Colin Powell held off his endorsement of Obama for some time, and I have no doubt he will figure prominently in a prospective Obama presidency, doubtless at the cabinet level-possibly as Secretary of Defense, maybe even reinstated as Secretary of State (although I would not be greatly surprised if Obama retained Condoleeza Rice in that position). Whatever position Powell might find himself in, we can assume this had a lot to do with his endorsement as well as the other things I mentioned, to say nothing of some degree of resentment over his treatment in the Bush Administration.
It might have been John McCain, however, who gave Powell the final shove, during the last debate, when he said there should be some spending cuts in defense, along with his assertion of waste and corruption in the awarding of contracts. This is in fact McCain’s one legitimate claim to a conservative foreign policy position. It may be the one thing that ultimately served to cost him the support of Colin Powell, however tenuous and unlikely that potential support might have always been.
Even at this, the Neo-cons will not go away easily or quickly. They will hold tenaciously to their grip on power until the last possible moment. What you are seeing is a civil war in the form of an inter-party rivalry for control of foreign policy of the Republican Party, but these two rival sets of internationalist hawks do not fight over ideology so much as military spending contracts, in my opinion.
Still, there is a profound ideological divide between them. One of them believes in the old Republican ideal of continued and growing defense spending and international American leadership of traditional treaty allies such as NATO. The other believes in controlled chaos, in upheaval and sustained and on-going crisis management and manipulation. The Democratic foreign policy, meanwhile, consists principally of moderate defense spending with a posture aimed at leadership by way of international cooperation. It will be as easy, and possibly even as necessary, for the Republican traditional foreign policy wing to gravitate to the Democratic Party as it once was for the old Democratic Party war philosophy adherents, inspired by the ideals of the early Vietnam era, to migrate to the Republican Party.
The Neo-cons have almost single-handedly wrecked the Republican Party, and despite the potential for backlash, they have induced Colin Powell to hand the Democrats and Obama a vital and important strategic and symbolic victory.
In the meantime, George Washington is still spinning in his grave for going on sixty years now. Some people say we are heading toward a new world, a new America, one that would be unrecognizable to our founding fathers.
Don’t look now, but that already happened long before most of us were ever born. I just happen to be one of the very small percentage of people that want to take us back. I won’t be holding my breath waiting for any mass movement to join with me, and that includes so-called “conservatives”.
Conservatives, like liberals, will always go where the money is. Their only ideological difference when it comes to defense spending isn’t so much how much to spend, but simply how and where to spend it. It still spends, and whoever doles it out will still spin it to look like its in America’s vital national interests, whether it is or not. If it is not, it can be made to be so. Perception is reality.
That’s why I have no doubt our allies will love and respect us more if a Democrat such as Obama takes power this year. It might be true that you can’t buy love, but you can lease a degree of temporary loyalty, while not in reality changing anything.
12 comments:
You got all of that out of "he is surrounding himself with people who will be able to give him the expertise that he at the moment does not have"
Help a brother out. How is that an endorsement of Obama for anything but his skin color?
"Dat negro done surronded hisself with some mighty fine brain hep."
Colin Powell. Feh.
I know that's a big part of it, but its the liberal policies too. Powell has been known to be left of center for some time now, and its really no surprise. I would like to think he's not that shallow, but I guess he is. Sure, the race factor is probably the icing on the cake, but there's more.
What bothers me more than Powell is when people like J C Watts, of all people, all but endorse him. You know, people you would expect more from, unlike Colin Powell.
That pretty long essay I wrote, which I appreciate your taking the time to read, was based on my assessment of a lot of things, not the least of which the very real rivalry that developed between Colin Powell and Donald Rumsfeld, which is really symptomatic of the larger split within the foreign policy wing of the Republican Party. Maybe I should have pointed that out, but hell it was long enough as it is.
Well, I won't argue with you about the Neo-Cons. I'm not a fan and my gut take on foreign policy is based on Washington's advice. But, in the world of "realpolitik," theories often get thrown out for pragmatism.
For instance: I was dead against the war in Iraq but, now that we're there, I want us to succeed.
I would prefer that we walk more softly but I also like having a really big heavy stick.
Actually, Patrick, I was all for us going in and getting rid of Saddam. My main problem with the war wasn't that we fought it, it was the way we fought it. That was Donald Rumsfeld's fuck-up, and boy did he ever fuck it up. The Surge changed things, and I'm all on board with winning this thing as quickly and efficiently as possible. Ditto for Afghanistan.
We were also justified in joining in with NATO in our containment and eventually dismemberment of the Soviet Union, just like we were justified in fighting World War II. (World War I was a different matter).
However, there comes a time when you have to take a step back and ask yourself, is all this crap still in the vital national security interests of the US?
Our involvement in the Middle East is justified to an extent due to the oil and energy factor. Our constant and continued presence in South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and especially Western Europe, is not, in my view.
Nor is our continued association with NATO. Our continued funding and involvement of NATO is no more justified than if we were still maintaining Union occupation of the American Southern states of the old Confederacy. It just doesn't make any sense. We are creating threats along the lines of boogeymen where it is unnecessary. Vladimir Putin, while he is certainly not our friend, is also not our enemy, but some sectors of the old school strategic defense alliance is determined to prop him up as such in order to keep this system afloat.
It's all about the money and the system. Ahmadinajahd is another example. Here you have what amounts to a loathsome individual who has been propped up in the minds of some to be a greater danger than what he is. This man is nothing but a puppet. Nothing more, nothing less.
Yes, they (the Iranian regime) are a danger. If they weren't somebody else would step in to fill that void. But that does not justify the constant continuance of an archaic foreign policy bureaucracy, which amounts to an entitlement in its own right.
Patrick-
I can't wait until the election is over so people can stop blogging about it.
Hint, hint, Danielle?
At least you have to say I have made a determined effort to not allow it to dominate my blog. Granted, I do probably blog more about it than I should, but I do try to blog about other things.
Admittedly, I have some catching up to do as far as other things I care about, but sometimes it seems politics dominates so much of the web and the blogosphere there's not much else to work with.
That's just the curse of being obsessed with stats and keywords.
Yeah, I'm guilty of it, too. I blogged about the Green party and I put Obama's health care plan from youtube into its separate post.
It's really getting old already, I wish we could have the election yesterday.
I hate to echo Rush Limbaugh, but I said it before he did and can't prove it...
What inexperienced, left-wing radical white honkey mofos has Colin Powell endorsed?
None?
It's a black thing. All a black thing.
How many has he had the opportunity to endorse? How can you be sure he would not have endorsed Hillary Clinton, or any other Democrat, if they had gotten the nomination?
Besides, he himself admitted it was partly because he was black, even while denying it. He described Obama as a "transformational figure". What else can that mean, other than that "okay, it is a little bit because he's black."
My point is its partly that, but only as one aspect in a variety of factors.
The most important factor is the rift that developed between Powell and the Neocons particularly, and the Bush Administration in general, due to the rivalry between himself at the State Department and Donald Rumsfeld at the Defense Department.
Powell has nursed a grudge over all of that ever since. If the truth were known, he probably also resented being viewed as the Bush Administration's favorite "house negro".
It might actually be a good thing. It might cause a backlash that might cause more people to vote for McCain. The race is tightening. Mccain is ahead again in Florida and Ohio, though barely so. He's still way behind in Virgina, Colorado, and Missouri, and he needs to win all three of those. He can't even afford to lose New Mexico or Nevada, where he is also behind. He might be able to afford to lose one of those two, but only one, and only if he can pick off New Hampshire. The race is tightening nationwide to within four percentage points, but McCain's problem is in those states I listed, where he is well behind.
Powell's endorsement probably won't amount to much in those western states, but it could mean something in Missouri and Virgina, and North Carolina. Its just too early to tell whether it will benefit Obama or cause a backlash in favor of McCain. I hope its the latter, but its too early to tell.
PT,
The flaw of that theory is that of the four historical schools of foreign policy in American politics (isolationism, internationalism, realism, and democratic globalism) Rumsfeld, Rice and Cheney are of the realism school, Wolfowitz and other neocons of the democratic globalism school. Powell probably falls in the gun shy wing of the isolationist camp.
Neocons, evil as they are supposed to be, haven't had the top dog positions in foreign policymaking since Jeane Kirkpatrick was Reagan's ambassador to the UN.
I may have fallen into the trap of identifying all Bush foreign policy officials as Neo-Con, but the point is Powell had a serious problem with Rumsfeld and others, whatever school of thought they belonged to, and I'm sure there is a lot of residual bitterness and resentment from that time involved in Powell's endorsement. The fact that Obama is black is no doubt a factor, as well as the possibility-I would say likelihood-that he is hoping for a position in an Obama Administration.
I doubt Powell would be classified as an isolationist, probably more of an internationalist. I doubt there are any isolationists of any real influence in Washington these days. I prefer the term Washingtonian myself, the term isolationist is an obvious intentional slur. It is not only unfair, the perceived meaning it conveys is inaccurate.
Powell admits in his memoirs about the planning for the war to liberate Kuwait from Iraq that he deliberately overestimated the amount of troops the United States would have to commit to the task because he was trying to make the plan logistically impossible - he was politically against liberating Kuwait.
The "Powell Doctrine" is largely media myth - he gets credit for what was largely General Schwarzkopf's plan to use precision air strikes on Iraq's military - when Powell was screaming for at least a gazillion googol squared boots on the ground.
He's largely a joke, in my eyes. Always has been.
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