I hate to break it to all you Sarah Palin fans, which does include me, but if you have the slightest idea that she will be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2012 if she and McCain lose the 2008 election, you are seriously deluded. It's not going to happen.
If McCain-Palin lose this election, which as of now seems more and more likely, start making plans to support the 2012 ticket of Mitt Romney and Bobby Jindal. Barring any unforeseeable eventualities, that is your 2012 ticket.
If McCain-Palin loses this election, she will run for re-election to Alaska, and will win handily. Her career following this will probably consist of three or four terms in the US Senate from Alaska.
I just had to say this because I've been reading posts from some well-intentioned bloggers who consider Palin the next Ronald Reagan. There is a flaw in this reasoning. The woman has no support from anyone with the power and finacial clout to put her over the top in a race for a presidential major party nomination against the likes of not only Romney, but a myriad of others who would come much closer to garnering the support of the Republican establishement. The last thing this group wants is another reformer. They went along with McCain this time because-and only because-they saw him as their one and only hope of overcoming dissastisfaction with the Republican Party among the general electorate, the independents and Reagan Democrats whom they must win in order to-well, win.
McCain still yet paid dearly for their tepid support this year, as he put his Maverick credentials under serious debate in order to garner their support. Now, that is coming back to bite him. We've all seen the ads I'm sure where McCain is seen in the last debate telling Obama he is not George Bush, and then the voice over reminding us how he did vote with Bush over ninety percent of the time, and then McCain bragging that he voted with Bush more often than even some of his fellow Republicans did. The last four years has consisted of McCain trying to make nice with the Republican establishment in order to win the election, even though he still almost torpedoed his chances with support of the constroversial Comprehensive Immigration Reform Bill.
Because of things such as this, and despite his other efforts at reconciliation with his party, he still might not have won the nomination if other conservatives had not divided the vote. Even Duncan Hunter, a relative unknown to most Americans, would have won if he had been McCains sole opponent. Still, the Republican establishment hoped to benefit from McCain's maverick status, and so they overlooked a lot they will not be so unwilling to overlook from Palin. In fact, some of them, such as George Will, are already among her most ardent detractors.
Yes, she would win easily if it were a matter of popularity among the Republican base. I think its safe to say, however, that it takes a lot more than that. It takes money and an appreciable amount of financial support which she just does not and will not have.
Therefore, I am telling you all, in all earnesty, if you want to see Palin in the White House, you had better concentrate your efforts on seeing her and John McCain win this coming election. If they do, there is a very good chance that McCain would step down after one term, at which point Palin would have the power of incumbency to see her through to winning the nomination. That is the only way you will ever see it happen.
If they dont win, there's at least the very real plus that she can continue to reform and build up Alaska to where it could easily become one of our most important states in a variety of ways. There is the further plus that she would probably be one hell of a great US Seantor at some point after that.
Just don't expect to ever see her as Presdient if she and McCain don't win this year.
Let that be motivation for you to get back out there, forget the nonsense about a future that will never be, and work your conservative asses off for McCain-Palin '08.
