Sunday, March 01, 2009

Beware The Evil Leprechaun

Gold might be more stable and secure now than it was in 1980, but just be sure you know what you're doing, regardless of the hype. Gold will probably be a safe investment over the next four years, for the simple fact we are going to experience sluggish economy recovery beginning at the end of this year, or the beginning of the next one. Since the dollar is going through a period of devaluation, gold is king once more, until the next period of significant economic recovery-again, more than likely not until roughly four years from now.

And then-



Translation-there will probably be a massive sell-off as folks diversify their investments once more. Watch the stock market closely over the next couple of years. A good rule of thumb is, once the Dow inches back above or close to the 9000 mark, that might be the best time to diversify while you still have a chance to increase your profit margins.

And incidentally, you should plan on diversifying soon. This is actually a good time to buy stocks, at least theoretically, as most of the more dependable stocks would seem to have no place to go but up. Still, take it slow for now. By the time the year is over with, there could well be more big name companies that tank, and one sudden disruption in any given number of areas could see many of them could evaporate overnight.

And by all means, buy some gold-a moderate amount. Don't imagine for one minute its going to remain at current prices, or rise even higher, and stay put. You might think you've got a pot of gold now, but if you aren't careful you could end up holding an empty bag.

Also, when buying gold, look to things like Canadian Maple Leafs, South African Kruggerands, and other such issues that remain stable in price. They don't rise in price with the gold market, but neither do they crash. Thus, they are a safe investment.

Personally, I wouldn't touch a gold fund with a ten foot pole. The current line is that gold is far undervalued since the 1980 debacle and allowing for current rates of inflation, it has a ways to go yet to catch up to its true value. That sounds reasonable, but then they try to sell you the song-and-dance that once it gets to that level it will stay there.

It will stay there until the next major sell-off, and then it will go down, maybe not as low as it has been typcically over the last three decades, but low enough that if you have a lot of money tied up in it you could lose your shirt.

Still now, for sure it is a good investment, like all things, in moderate measure.