Why Iraq Will Probably Remain A Hopeless Disaster

Like a lot of people last night, I was a captive audience to Bush's ill-advised and innappropriate campaign speech which was ostensibly billed as a memorial to the 9/11 victims. Luckily, he didn't cut out the enjoyment of either of my guily pleasures of tv viewing, "Prison Break" and "Vanished", he just abruptly appearred on my tv screen for about twenty eternal minutes between the two. I found myself feeling like a prisoner, and wished that he would just vanish.

So far, no word on what effect this will have on his sagging poll numbers, but I am thinking it can't be good. Nor do I think for one minute he did his fellow Republican party members, especially those running for re-election in their various races, the least bit of good. Most Americans, whether they are Republican or Democrat, conservative or liberal, will surely see this for what it was-a politically motivated speech given in such a way as to lock out the traditional oppossing party viewpoint.

And it had little to do with remembering the victims of 9/11, although that was it's stated purpose. Instead, it was yet another in a series of "stay the course" speeches, aimed not just at the war on terror, but by implication, the Iraqi War. Actually, especially that. He made it clear, in no uncertain terms, that we would finish the job in Iraq, and painted a disturbing picture of the potential consequences were we not to do this.

Although it is good the Democrats did not provide an equally innapropriate political response to his speech, it would do us well to look at the main reason the War in Iraq has been such a failure, and one of catastrophic proportions.

It's not just that we went in with far too few troops, with no real help from our traditional allies-even Britain, our strongest ally in the war, provided jusy a small percentage of troops relative to ours, and they have been stationed for the most part in the relatively peaceful Shi'ite South-nor is it simply that we miscalculated the degree and intensity of the insurrection from the various internal parties to the conflict. All this is very true, and has resulted in our being bled dry in terms of money thrown haplessly into this seemingly bottomless pit. It is also true that it has caused us no small degree of anger and even hatred from a great many Arab and Muslim nations, even those that are, like Britain, ostensibly our allies, and where as well our policies are contoversial at best.

The latter of course was to be expected, and can be seen as merely the unexpressed reality finally coming to the surface. And even this seems not to have been a part of the military and political calculations of the Bush Administration, and so this, as well as everything else I mentioned, points to a degree of incompetence that is absolutely remarkable.

The only thing that can possibly lead to a succesful conclusion in our favor, is if the Iraqi government maintains it's power, and establishes a police, security, and military force that is capable of standing up to any threat, and soundly defeating it. Once it establishes it's position and relegates the terrorist insurgency to irrelevance, then and only then can the Iraqi War be seen as a success. But they have to be the ones to do this.

Unfortunately, this requires a degree of professional training which has been slow in coming. Nor do I think it will ever occur. I pointed this out some months ago, and now it seems appropriate to say it again. The United States military and government are not in a hurry to train a professional, standing Iraqi army capable of holding it's own against any foreign or domestic threat.

The reason for this is simple, and in a way understandable. The US government and military establishment is loathe to admit it, but it makes sense. The last thing they want is an Iraqi army, trained to US military levels, that might one day form, under a majority Shi'ite government, a military and political alliance with Iran. Or one that might eventually come under the control of another Saddam, perhaps worse than the original.

Such a professional military, under such leadership, might pose a far greater threat to US interests and to Middle East stability and security than Saddam ever could have-even in his wildest dreams.

Unfortunately, that is exactly what it is going to take to resolve this conflict, like it or not. We just have to take our chances, bluntly stated. It's that, or, as Bush and the Republicans like to say, "cut and run". Those are the only two options. One is acceptable, though a gamble. The other is not, but at some future date may become unnavoidable. Otherwise, we stay, for years, and keep getting the same results, like that crazy person that never learns from his mistakes and thinks if he keeps doing the same thing he will get a different result.

If we do train the Iraqi military to the necessary level of strength and proficiency, we might well find ourselves at some future date having to stand up to a Frankesteins monster of our own creation. But if that's what it takes to resolve this issue, so be it. Decades more of what is going on surely can't be any better. Yet, that is precisely what we are faced with, or tucking our tails and running. It's time for somebody to make that hard choice, but Bush and his Neo-Con Administration are too busy trying to sell us on blind faith. Fortuately, more people are opening their eyes every day.